Broncos vs. Patriots: What's Changed Since Week 12

The Denver Broncos and New England Patriots are preparing for their second, and drastically more important, meeting of the 2013 NFL season, this one for a chance to play in Super Bowl XLVII. The first time the two teams played each other this season was a wild one in Week 12 at Foxboro; the Broncos took a 24-0 lead into half, only to have the Pats storm back and tie it in regulation, and eventually win 34-31 in overtime. In that game, the Broncos were dealt their second loss of the season, while the Pats secured their eighth win of the season. Both teams followed up that cold night in Foxboro with four wins and one loss, the Broncos rounding out their season with a 13-3 record and the first seed in the AFC, while the Pats claimed the second seed in the conference with a 12-4 final record. Each team followed up their 4-1 end to the season with a bye during Wild Card weekend and a home-field win in the Divisional Round, ending the seasons of the Chargers and Colts. While both teams have followed similar paths to get to this AFC Championship Game in Denver, there have been a lot of changes for both Denver and New England since that Week 12 game, all of which will have an impact on Sunday's matchup.

1. Defensive Injuries
Both Broncos and Pats have been plagued by injuries since their Week 12 matchup, each losing some key members on the defensive side of the ball. The Broncos will head into the AFC Championship Game without star linebacker, Von Miller, and exceptional slot cornerback, Chris Harris, who both suffered season-ending ACL injuries in Week 16 and the Divisional playoffs respectively. Miller's injury ended what has been a disappointing season all-around for him in which he ended up playing in just 9 of the team's 17 games (so far). Harris, meanwhile, was having a second consecutive season in which he excelled, ranking fourth in tackles (65), tied for first in interceptions (3), and second on the Broncos in passes defended (16). While it is unseen how the Broncos will adjust without Harris in the lineup, their defense does not appear to have felt the loss of Von Miller in their pass rush. Nate Irving, Shaun Phillips, Robert Ayers, and Jeremy Mincey, the group charged with replacing Miller in the pass rush, have combined for 7.0 sacks in the three games since Von's injury. Harris' reps on defense will likely be split between Champ Bailey, Kayvon Webster, Quentin Jammer, and Tony Carter, although Harris believes it should be Carter. Whoever does step into Harris' role will be hard-pressed to play up to the standards of one of the league's best cover corners, as this injury most definitely will open up a hole in the secondary for Tom Brady to exploit. In addition to these two key players going down, the Broncos lost a big part of their interior defense, when Kevin Vickerson was placed on IR following the Week 12 game against the Pats. Malik Jackson and Sylvester Williams have excelled in Vickerson's stead, which has not only prevented the Broncos' run defense to regress, but has actually boosted their play.

On the other side of the field, New England enters Sunday's game third leading tackler, Brandon Spikes, who was placed on IR after Week 16. Additionally, Dont'a Hightower, the team's tackle leader in 2013 is questionable to play in Sunday's matchup with an ankle injury. Rookie linebacker, Jamie Collins, who provided a spark on the Pats' defense last week, making three tackles, along with an INT and a sack, will be heavily relied upon to have an equal impact on this game, with the Pats potentially missing two of their starting linebackers.

2. Offensive Tendencies
Since the last time these two teams met, one offense has changed drastically in the way that they move the ball, while the other offense has just kept chugging along like the finely-tuned machine that it is. The Patriots are the first of the two teams; since the Week 12 meeting between the two, their offense has slowly been molded into a prominent run team, as opposed to a pass-first offense. Up to and including the Broncos game, the Patriots' offense was averaging 245 passing yards and 125.9 rushing yards per game; following the Broncos game, they have averaged 262.83 passing yards and 152.3 rushing yards per game. Obviously these numbers suggest that the Patriots have improved in both areas of their offense, passing and running more effectively; however, the biggest change has taken place over the course of their final two regular season games and Divisional playoff game. In their last three games, the Pats are averaging an extremely low 152.3 passing yards per game, and a huge 214.3 rushing yards per game. Luckily, the Pats' new-found love for the run plays into the strengths of the Broncos defense as of late; over the three weeks that the Pats have averaged over 200 yards on the ground in each game, the Broncos have held opponents to just 72 yards rushing on average. While New England has averaged 5.16 yards per carry over those three weeks, and have broken off four 25+ yard runs, the Broncos defense has been equally stellar, allowing just 3.36 yards per carry and only one run of 15+ yards over that span. The team who is able to continue to dominate the battle in the trenches at the line of scrimmage will likely be the victor in this one.

While New England's offense has undergone big changes over the past seven weeks, the Broncos' offense has continued strong and never faltered along the way. When you look at Denver's offense, you see a perfect picture of consistency and balance; the Broncos averaged 330.6 passing yards and 121 rush yards per game up until Week 12, and then went on to finish the season with averages of 339.7 passing yards and 112.5 rushing yards per game. Over the last three weeks, the story is no different, with the Broncos climbing back up to 123.7 rushing yards per game on the backs of Knowshon Moreno and Montee Ball, while Peyton has remained a dominant force with 320.3 passing yards per game. The Broncos' balance and consistency on offense makes them unpredictable and dangerous from many angles, and as newly-signed Bronco and former Patriot DB Marquice Cole stated in an interview this week, "Peyton Manning has seen every defense. So there's nothing I can tell him that he doesn't already know." The Patriots' defense will have its hands full trying to defend the wide array of weapons that are at the disposal of one of the best quarterbacks to ever play the game.

3. Tight End Swap
The last time the Patriots and Broncos met, one team's star tight end stole the show in the second half, while the other team's star tight end could only sit and watch, sidelined by an injury; those two tight ends swapped roles for this week's AFC Championship Game in Denver.

Rob Gronkowski, Tom Brady's favourite and most reliable target in the pass game, will be sidelined from this Sunday's game, much to the relief of Denver's linebackers and safeties. Gronkowski is a huge target, with outstanding athleticism for someone his size, making it hard for anyone to cover him. The star tight end, better known as "Gronk", ripped the Broncos' defense for 90 yards and a TD on 7 receptions in their Week 12 matchup. Gronkowski was a force in the second half comeback for New England, making five catches for 81 yards and a TD in the second half. Tom Brady has sorely missed Gronkowski when he hasn't been in the lineup this season, and greatly benefited from having Gronk at his disposal; in seven games with Gronkowski in the lineup this season, Brady averaged 275.63 passing yards per game and a 64.08 completion percentage, in ten games without his big target, Brady averaged just 212.36 yards per game with a 57.18 completion percentage. Evidently Gronkowski is a game-changer at tight end; his inability to play this week clearly handicaps the Patriots pass game and makes it easier on the Broncos in coverage.

On the opposite side of the ball, Peyton Manning will have one of his favourite targets in the lineup this week as Julius Thomas will be ready to play after missing the last meeting between these two teams. Just as Rob Gronkowski is vital to the Patriots' pass attack, Julius Thomas has established himself as a vital piece of the Broncos' pass offense this season. Thomas was fourth on the team in receptions (65) and second in touchdown receptions (12) this season; the former college basketball player, who has since been converted to an excellent receiver, came up big many times this season, making 46.7% of his catches to convert first downs. Peyton Manning has been extremely efficient when targeting Orange Julius, completing 72.2% of his passes when throwing to Thomas, who averages 12.1 yards per catch. Having Thomas in the lineup for this rematch adds another dynamic to the offense that simply wasn't present in Week 12; Julius Thomas is a player who Manning can rely on to make a big play when needed, as was apparent on a certain crucial 3rd-and-17 play nearing the end of the Chargers game last week. Julius Thomas may just be the difference between the final score of Week 12's game and the final score of this AFC Championship Game.

In conclusion, it appears as though the changes that both teams have undergone since their Week 12 thriller give a slight advantage to the Broncos in this rematch. While the Broncos will be without a couple key pieces on defense, the Patriots will also be handicapped with a similar situation. On one hand, the Broncos' offense is firing on all cylinders, with both the pass and run working equally and all their weapons healthy; on the other hand, the Patriots are relying heavily on the run, while their passing game has been significantly less effective without Rob Gronkowski in the lineup. Regardless of these significant changes for both teams, we'll no doubt be treated to one heck of a game tomorrow afternoon in Denver.

Looking Forward: Broncos (6-1) vs. Redskins (2-4)

Last Week:  The Broncos are coming off of a 39-33 loss to the Indianapolis Colts at the "House That Peyton Built." Unfortunately, Peyton's return to Indy was a disappointing loss to a strong AFC contender, but may have been a wake-up call for Denver. Read my thoughts on last week's game here.

The Opposing Team: The Washington Redskins are coming out of a shootout game, in which they narrowly beat Josh McCown (yes, Josh McCown) and the Chicago Bears 45-41. Washington had high hopes coming into the 2013 season, with RGIII in his second season at quarterback. However, Griffin and the 'Skins are sitting at a disappointing 2-4 record. However, Griffin seems to be on his way back to regular form, rushing for 84 yards in the win last week (more than he's rushed for since Week 10 of the 2012 season).

Interesting Fact of the Week: With a win this week, the Denver Broncos would sweep the NFC East, with prior wins against the Giants, Eagles, and Cowboys. The last season that the Broncos played all four NFC East teams (2009), they only managed a 2-2 record.

Things to Watch: 

Peyton Manning

It was announced on Wednesday that Manning, along with a few other veteran players, was not practicing with the rest of the team. It turns out that Manning is simply nursing a slight ankle injury, and is fully expected to play in Sunday's game. Look for Peyton to have a bounce-back game against the Redskins, provided that he is healthy. In his career, he is 14-5-0 against teams from the NFC East (3-1-0 against the Redskins). Not only is this record fantastic, but so are Manning's combined stats in these games: 102.6 QBR, 67.73% completion percentage, 292.5 passing yards per game (most against any division), and 2.32 TDs per game. Hopefully, Manning will be given more time in the pocket this week, as compared to last week, where he was hit 13 times. Unfortunately, Orlando Franklin did not practice Wednesday, and is doubtful to play Sunday, which means that Manning could be in for another long day if the rest of the line cannot compensate for the loss of their starting right tackle. Conversely, the Redskins have the 28th overall defense in the league, and only the 23rd ranked pass rush (Football Outsiders), as opposed to the Colts, who rank 12th and 7th in those categories respectively.

Demaryius Thomas vs. Deangelo Hall

It's always a treat getting to watch a great wide-receiver line up opposite one of the leagues most talented corners. DeAngelo Hall will likely be stuck with the task of covering the Broncos most explosive receiver, Demaryius Thomas on Sunday. While Calvin Johnson is undoubtedly the number one receiver in the league, Thomas is definitely not far behind in talent, and plays a similar style of game to Megatron. Johnson was able to scorch Hall in their Week 3 matchup, posting 115 yards on 7 catches, with one touchdown. Conversely, Dez Bryant, a receiver who is very similar in talent to Thomas, was only able to notch 5 receptions for 36 yards against the Redskins in Week 5. It could be argued that the Cowboys have less weapons than the Broncos in the passing game, which may have accounted for the lack of production from Bryant, who was manned-up all day. It will be interesting to see if the Broncos are able to utilize DT more than they did last week, and who gets the better of who in this intriguing one-on-one matchup.

Mike Shanahan's Return to Denver

This week will be the first time that long-time Broncos' head coach, turned Washington head-coach will be returning to Mile High with his new team. Shanahan had a long, successful career in Denver, before being fired in the 2008 season, following three straight seasons without reaching the playoffs. In his 224-game career with the Broncos, Shanahan led the team to a 138-86-0 record and back-to-back Super Bowls in 1997/1998 (with current Broncos VP John Elway at quarterback). The Broncos reached the playoffs in 7 of Shanahan's 14 seasons at the helm, posting a .616 winning percentage. Before this Sunday's game, the team will honour their former coach with a video presentation after the Redskin players are introduced. This return will not be quite as heralded as the Manning return to Indy last week, but it is always special to honour someone who has had such an impact on a franchise. I know for one, that I had a lot of respect for Shanahan during his time in Denver, and I was actually upset when he was fired. Strategy-wise, Shanahan's return to Denver will not require a great deal of adjustments, as it's been 5 years since his departure, and much of the system established under his tenure with the Broncos has been overhauled. Additionally, it would appear that Denver has an advantage heading into this game. Peyton Manning holds a 7-1-0 record when facing teams coached by Mike Shanahan (excluding the final game of the '05 season, where he threw two pass attempts before leaving a game that the Colts would eventually lose).

 Von Miller 

Miller got off to a bit of a rusty start to his 2013 season, after his return to the lineup was talked about a great deal throughout the week leading up to the game. To Miller's credit, he has not participated in drills involving physical contact for six weeks, and this clearly showed in the first game. With two weeks of practice and a complete game under his belt, look for one of the league's most exciting defensive players to have a bounce-back game to his usual form. Getting to the quarterback won't be easy though, as Washington has the 11th ranked pass protection offensive line, according to Football Outsiders. However, Miller hasn't gone two straight games without a sack since Weeks 3 and 4 of last season against Houston and Oakland, and should be much quicker this week after getting additional practice time.

Wesley Woodyard

Wes Woodyard practiced in full on Wednesday for the Broncos, and is expected to make his return to the lineup this week. Woodyard was definitely missed in the Colts game, both in his play and leadership on the field. The 6-year pro, who Mike Shanahan coincidentally signed as an undrafted free agent enters play with 19 solo tackles, 1.5 sacks, and 2 pass-defenses. The speedy linebacker, who has great horizontal speed and awareness, will be an integral part of containing Robert Griffin's option game. Woodyard played a large part in containing Raiders' QB, Terrelle Pryor, during the Broncos' Week 3 game, and will be an integral part in stopping RGIII this week.

RGIII

While Robert Griffin has gotten off to a not-so-spectacular start to his sophomore season, coming off ACL surgery, he has seemed to regain some of his rookie form in the past couple weeks, particularly on the ground. Griffin rushed for 84 yards in last week's win over the Bears, something he hasn't done since Week 10 of last season against the Giants. The Broncos' team of versatile linebackers will have their hands full trying to contain the speedy quarterback. However, as mentioned above, the Broncos held similarly-versatile quarterback, Terrelle Pryor, to 36 yards. Denver essentially eliminated all of Pryor's opportunities to run, so much so that he only attempted to carry the ball four times over the course of that game. RGIII is definitely more talented than Pryor, but I think that the Broncos have the right composition on defense to slow his run game down drastically.

Pass defense

While the Broncos can likely shut down the Redskins rush game, as they have to teams all season, they may struggle again against the pass, with Champ Bailey set to miss this game against his former team (5 seasons, 18 INT, 292 tackles). With Bailey out of the lineup, the Broncos will rely on a very young secondary (mean age of 24.5 years old) to contain a talented group of receivers and an offensive line who generally provides their quarterback with time to throw. The key to shutting down the passing game will be 1) an increased efficiency in pass rushing, which Von Miller can hopefully provide; 2) the containment of Pierre Garcon by Dominique Rodgers-Cromartie; and 3) the continued impressive work of the rookie Kayvon Webster, who will have an expanded role in this game with Champ out.

Broncos' running backs

Much has been made of the Ronnie Hillman fumble this week, and rightly-so. Hillman lost a fumble on what was possibly the most crucial offensive drive of the game for the Broncos. The second-year back out of San Diego State was surrounded with concerns of fumbling in his college career, and clearly this is still an issue for him. Hillman is an explosive back, likely the most explosive of the Broncos' runners. However, don't look for him to get many carries in the near future after last weeks gaffe. Look for Montee Ball to have an expanded role in this game, if Denver gets a lead. Ball will likely be given the late-game carries that Hillman has received in other games where the Broncos lead late.

Knowshon Moreno also had a rough game against the Colts' physical defense, behind a depleted offensive line. After only managing 40 yards on 15 carries in last weeks game, Moreno will look to bounce back to form this week. Through the 2013 season, he has averaged 59 rushing yards and 28 receiving yards per game, along with 8 TDs. In his fifth season, Moreno appears to finally be slightly justifying the first-round pick that the Broncos used on him in 2009 out of Georgia. The former member of the Bulldogs has also proven to be the most effective pass blocker of the Broncos' backs this season, enough reason to start him alone, based on the importance of keeping Peyton Manning healthy. I'd look for Moreno to have a big game on the ground this week, against a Washington defense that has allowed over 200 yards on the ground in their last two games.

Conclusion: The Broncos seem to have a favourable matchup in the 2-4 Redskins, as long as they can contain the versatile quarterback, Robert Griffin. Both the running and passing game should see success against a weak Redskins defense, and I fully expect both Peyton and Knowshon to bounce back from relatively weak Week 7 performances. Having a fully healthy linebacking corps this week should give the Broncos a much-needed improvement in their pass-rush, which will be important to minimize the time that their young secondary will have to maintain coverage. I expect a shoot-out in Denver, with the Broncos finding their winning ways again, while Washington slowly slips out of contention in the weak NFC East.