The 2013 season has come to an abrupt and heartbreaking finale for the Denver Broncos, and they do not have time to dwell on that heartbreak for long, as the team must look forward to the off-season and how they are going to keep this team in contention for another Super Bowl. This means that the team is going to have to make some quick, but smart decisions about which of their 16 potential free agents they'd like to keep around, and devise a plan for how they will fill the holes that remain once some of these players inevitably wind up on other NFL teams. Of the 16 Broncos players that are set to hit free agency, seven of them held starting roles for Denver this past season; I'm here to take a look at who should stay, who the Broncos should let go, and how they may go about replacing these players.
Wide Receiver- Eric Decker
Much to the dismay of Jessie James and Decker's many female fans in Denver, the Broncos will undoubtedly have to part ways with Decker come the off-season. Decker will be a hot commodity in the free agent market, and he no-doubt knows that; he'll likely collect a big pay-cheque from another NFL team, unless he's willing to take a pay-cut to stay in Denver. With Demaryius Thomas, Wes Welker, and Julius Thomas all still under contract for another season, it's likely in the Broncos' best interest to wave goodbye to #87, as unfortunate as that is. As far as replacing Decker goes, the Broncos have a couple options: They will have to make a decision on another free-agent receiver, Andre Caldwell, who performed well this season when called upon, making 16 receptions on 29 targets, for 200 yards and 3 touchdowns. Caldwell may be a cheap, yet efficient way to fill the void of Decker, if he is able to replicate that success over the full course of a season with more snaps. If the Broncos are not able to maintain Caldwell, they may be required to draft a receiver in the upcoming draft, a draft that is deep with receivers (15 projected to be taken in the first 3 rounds). As a final option, Denver could wait to see who hits the free-agent market from other teams, although they are in no position to get into a bidding war over any big names. The Broncos would be smart to re-sign Caldwell for an affordable price, and draft a receiver in one of the later rounds of the draft. A couple possibilities to replace Decker's size and speed are Donte Moncrief (Ole Miss) near the end of the third round, or Pittsburgh's Devin Street towards the end of the fourth round of the draft.
Running Back- Knowshon Moreno
Knowshon Moreno had the breakout season that everyone has been waiting for (and maybe believed would never come) in 2013, and is now ready to head up a very weak class of free agent running backs. Moreno will be worth a lot of money on the open market, with teams such as the Browns, Raiders, Cardinals, Giants, and Dolphins all likely looking for someone to fill a void at the position. Moreno is probably the easiest of Denver's potential free agents to replace, with Montee Ball waiting to take the number one spot at running back. Ball showed towards the season that he has adjusted to running at the NFL level, and has greatly improved his pass-blocking as well. Ball will likely be back in the work-horse role that he occupied in Wisconsin come next season, with Ronnie Hillman and CJ Anderson both under contract as back-ups. The Broncos may look to take a running back later in the draft, or sign a smaller name in free agency in order to supplement the backfield. Anthony Dixon of the 49ers would be an intriguing, and likely cheap, option if San Francisco allows him to hit the open market.
Cornerback- Dominique Rodgers-Cromartie
DRC was probably one of the best off-season signings in the NFL last year, based solely on how cheap the Broncos were able to sign him for. Now, with a full season of solid football under his belt, and the Broncos needing to conserve cap space, it's unlikely DRC will be back in the blue and orange without taking a pay cut to be there. The Broncos are in a tough situation when it comes to their secondary as the off-season approaches; Chris Harris is a restricted free agent, who absolutely must be re-signed, Champ Bailey's play continues to falter as he ages, meaning he'll need to restructure to stay with the Broncos, Quentin Jammer should be on his way out after a poor showing all season, which leaves the Broncos with only Kayvon Webster and Tony Carter under contract for 2014 right now. With Harris likely due a big pay-upgrade due to his excellent level of play, it likely leaves DRC on the outside, unless he's willing to be paid less to play on the Broncos. One thing that is working in the favour of the Broncos in this situation is the abundance of CBs that have the potential to hit the market around the league, which would lower DRC's value; Vontae Davis, Brent Grimes, Captain Munnerlyn, Alterraun Verner, and Sam Shields are just some of the talent that may be available. My personal preference is that the Broncos keep Rodgers-Cromartie around if they can, but ultimately they will likely let him test the market and find his worth, before making any hasty decisions. As I noted before, there is the potential for a lot of talent to hit the market, which should make DRC replaceable if need be.
Guard-Zane Beadles
Zane Beadles was part of the rock-solid (until the Super Bowl) Denver offensive line that allowed the lowest quarterback pressure percentage in the league. Beadles was not necessarily that impressive on his own over the course of the season, but the upcoming draft is not deep with guards by any means, and neither is the free agency market, which will up the value of the 2010 second-round draft pick. As with DRC, the Broncos will allow Beadles to test the waters of free agency to find his worth in the market, before making an attempt to sign him. If the Broncos must replace the third-year guard, they have the option of moving Orlando Franklin inside to guard, and have Chris Clark, who stepped up big-time at left tackle this season, move to right tackle for the 2014 season.
Defensive End- Shaun Phillips
Shaun Phillips, like Rodgers-Cromartie, was another one of Elway's wonderful 2013 free agency signings that was so brilliant because of the price. Phillips provided the Broncos with 13 sacks and 30 tackles for the cheap price of $1.4 million. If the Broncos were able to sign Phillips to the same contract, or even slightly higher, it would be a smart investment to make. Phillips showed that he can still play hard at the age of 32, and was a big reason why the Broncos were able to survive without Von Miller for much of the season. Phillips is getting up there in age, and is at the point in his career where he is pushing for a championship; he'd likely be willing to work around the Broncos' cap needs in order to get a contract worked out. If Phillips' demands too high of a price though, the Broncos are in a position to let him walk. Von Miller is expected to be healthy for the 2014 season, and Malik Jackson, who was exceptional against the run this season, and chipped in 7 sacks of his own, is also under contract. Additionally, Jeremy Mincey, who played very well for the Broncos during the final stretch of the season, will likely be an affordable re-sign for the Broncos, which would make losing Phillips easier. Ultimately, the Broncos will likely need to choose between signing Phillips or Robert Ayers at the defensive end position, as signing both would probably be too costly.
Linebacker- Wesley Woodyard and Paris Lenon
Both of the Broncos middle linebackers this season, one who played 73.3% of the defensive snaps (Woodyard), and another who played on 31.5% of all defensive snaps (Lenon) are both eligible for free agency this off-season. Woodyard, one of the Broncos defensive captains, had a poor showing this season, which allowed Lenon to play on more snaps over the second half of the season. Both linebackers are by no means must-signs for Denver, but I'd like to see them sign Woodyard to an extension. Woodyard has been one of the leaders of the defense over the past few seasons, and it truly would be a shame to see him go. Woodyard's poor play throughout the course of the season may actually benefit the Broncos, because it means his value will not be as high and he may be willing to sign for less than the 3.25 million he made in 2013. Paris Lenon is a player who the Broncos should consider to provide depth at linebacker if he's willing to sign for somewhere in the ball-park of $1 million annually; otherwise, his play is replaceable for cheaper.
The Broncos' toughest decisions will come at cornerback and defensive end, where they have the potential to look a lot different next year. I have full confidence in John Elway working his off-season magic, although his magic may be hindered by the big cap hits of Peyton Manning, Champ Bailey, and Joel Dreesen. Dreesen is a potential buy-out option for the Broncos, which would open up $2.5 million in cap space, and Champ should be willing to re-structure his contract in order to stay with the team. Champ, as much of a great guy and player as he is, has not played up to his salary over the past couple seasons. Additionally, Peyton Manning should think about a re-structure as well, if he wants to enable Elway to put a competitive team around him to make another run at a Super Bowl.
Showing posts with label Knowshon Moreno. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Knowshon Moreno. Show all posts
Wednesday, February 5, 2014
Monday, December 23, 2013
Ball or Lacy? The Case For Montee Ball
If
you’re a Broncos fan, you’re certainly familiar with the narrative, in the 2013
NFL Draft, the Denver Broncos selected Montee Ball with the 58th
overall selection of the draft, passing on Eddie Lacy, who was drafted by the
Packers with pick 61. At first glance, the choice of Ball over Lacy looks like
a no-brainer, when examining both backs’ college statistics. Eddie Lacy racked
up 2740 total yards and 32 TDs in his three seasons in Alabama, while Ball
doubled both of those totals, amassing 5738 total yards and 83 TDs in his four
seasons spent as the starting back for the Wisconsin Badgers. Regardless of his
collegiate statistical advantages, there have been questions about whether or
not the Broncos made the right selection in Ball, questions that get louder and
louder with the continued success of Lacy as the Packers lead back, while Ball
splits time in the Broncos backfield with Knowshon Moreno. While the reasoning
behind these questions is understandable, they are not fair to ask at this
point in both young backs’ careers, and they are far from being answered; one
thing is for sure though, Montee Ball has shown equal signs of a promising
career in the NFL as Lacy has.
The primary reason that these questions are unfair is simply
the workload and the situations that both backs are in. Eddie Lacy earned the
starting role out of training camp in Green Bay, and was immediately given a
heavy workload in the opening weeks of the season; since the start of the 2013
season, when healthy, Lacy has seen less than fifteen touches just once. In
addition to Lacy getting starter snaps from the beginning of the season, the
Packers began to rely much more heavily on the rookie when star quarterback,
Aaron Rodgers, went down with a broken collarbone in Week 8; since then, the
Pack have given Lacy an average of 19 carries per game and he’s been a valuable
safety net for the backup QBs, hauling in 19 of his 31 grabs over the past
seven weeks. On the other side of the spectrum, Montee Ball started the 2013
season in a battle with two talented backs, Knowshon Moreno and Ronnie Hillman,
who each had a full season of learning Peyton Manning’s complicated offense
under their belts. Moreno won the starting job, and has managed to hold onto it
due to strong quarterback protection and passionate rushing performances;
however, Ball has managed to be an effective change-up back and has provided
some solid pass protection as of late. In addition to that, Ball has shown some
real explosiveness and an ability to run at the NFL level in the action that he
has seen. Anyone who watched the Broncos’ Week 11 matchup against the Chiefs,
where Montee put up 117 yards in just 13 carries can see the potential that
Ball has as a runner. Clearly, the sheer quantity of opportunities that Lacy
has been given gives him an advantage over Ball, prompting people to unfairly
suggest that he is the better back; statements that become more absurd when
looking at the numbers that the two backs have respectively managed.
|
|
Rush
Yards
|
Yards/Game
|
Yards/Attempt
|
Attempts/Game
|
TDs
|
|
Montee Ball
|
455
|
32.5
|
4.3
|
7.6
|
4
|
|
Eddie Lacy
|
1028
|
79.1
|
4.1
|
19.1
|
8
|
Simply observing the two backs’ rushing statistics
reveals an obviously heavier workload for Lacy, resulting in more yards, yards
per game, attempts per game, and touchdowns; however, Ball has actually
averaged more yards per attempt, suggesting that he would have similar numbers
to Lacy if given more opportunities. The Broncos and Packers run similar offenses,
the Broncos averaging 41.6 (58%) pass attempts and 29.6 (42%) rushing attempts
per game, while the Packers average 35.1 (55%) pass attempts and 28.2 (45%) rushing
attempts per game, which makes the two teams easy to compare. If Montee Ball
were to maintain his 4.3 yards per attempt, as well as his 26.5 carries per
touchdown, and was given the same percentage of the load of work in Denver that
Eddie Lacy receives in Green Bay (62.7%), rather than playing second fiddle to
Knowshon Moreno, the first-year back’s pro-rated stats alongside Eddie Lacy’s
numbers would look as follows:
|
|
Rush
Yards
|
Yards/Game
|
Yards/Attempt
|
Attempts/Game
|
TDs
|
|
Montee Ball
|
1114
|
79.6
|
4.3
|
18.5
|
9
|
|
Eddie Lacy
|
1028
|
79.1
|
4.1
|
19.1
|
8
|
With 62.7% of the Broncos’ rushing workload, Montee Ball
would receive approximately 260 carries, which yield the numbers in the above table.
With an equal workload to Lacy, Ball’s pro-rated statistics indicate that the
rookie back out of Wisconsin would have equal, if not better numbers than Eddie
Lacy. The Packers’ and Broncos’ offensive lines appear to be equally talented,
with the 10th and 1lth ranked rush offensive lines respectively per Football
Outsiders, meaning that this would not be a factor in production between the
two. When you look at more advanced statistics regarding the two backs, like
the one below, it reveals that Montee Ball have a higher first down rate on his
carries, as well as a higher TD rate. Additionally, you see that Ball has had a
slightly harder time holding onto the ball (which got him into the early season
doghouse), but you also see that both backs have provided excellent quarterback
protection with 0% sack rates.
|
|
First
Down Rate (Rush)
|
TD
Rate
|
Fumble
Rate
|
30+
Yd Rushes
|
Sack
Rate
|
|
Montee
Ball
|
26.7%
|
3.8%
|
1.9%
|
1
|
0%
|
|
Eddie
Lacy
|
22.2%
|
3.2%
|
0.4%
|
3
|
0%
|
In
addition to showing similar talent in rushing and pass protection, Montee Ball
and Eddie Lacy have very similar receiving numbers out of the back field, with
Ball averaging half the catches as Lacy, and exactly half the yards. Again, if
the numbers that Ball has put up were pro-rated using the same workload as
Lacy, it can be seen that the Badger alum would have eerily similar numbers to
those of Lacy.
|
|
Rec.
Yards
|
Yards/Game
|
Yards/Catch
|
Catches/Game
|
TDs
|
|
Montee Ball
|
123
|
8.8
|
7.2
|
1.2
|
0
|
|
Eddie Lacy
|
236
|
18.2
|
7.6
|
2.4
|
0
|
Eddie Lacy’s has 31 total receptions this year, giving
him 9.70% of Green Bay’s passing completions. If Montee Ball were to have an
equal portion of the Broncos’ pass completions, he would have approximately 31
as well (30.846), which would give him pro-rated receiving stats as follows
(assuming he continued to average 7.2 yards per catch):
|
|
Rec.
Yards
|
Yards/Game
|
Yards/Catch
|
Catches/Game
|
TDs
|
|
Montee Ball
|
222
|
15.9
|
7.2
|
2.2
|
0
|
|
Eddie Lacy
|
236
|
18.2
|
7.6
|
2.4
|
0
|
While clearly these numbers are built upon the assumption
that Ball would maintain his average numbers across the same amount of work as
Lacy, it appears as though the backs have shown similar promise for each of
their teams in the play that they’ve been given. There is no question that both
running backs are going to be premier players for their teams in the NFL in
years to come, Lacy simply has been given the opportunity to do so early in his
career. Meanwhile, Montee Ball is stuck behind Knowshon Moreno, who is having a
huge breakout year for the Broncos, and is arguably the Broncos’ MVP behind
Peyton Manning. It’s safe to say that even if the Broncos had drafted Lacy, he
would probably be playing a secondary role to Moreno, who still would have had
the advantage of knowing the pass-protection schemes and the intricate play
calls of Peyton Manning from the start of the season. The Broncos will be in an
interesting position in the offseason, when Moreno becomes an unrestricted free
agent. Denver will have to choose between keeping Moreno at a much higher
price, now that he has proven he can be a number one back, or cut ties with
Moreno and hand the reins to Montee Ball, who appears to be the future franchise
back. While I love the passion and play of Knowshon, if the price were too high
to keep him around, I have no doubt that Montee Ball could come in and do
exactly what everyone hoped he could when the Broncos drafted him, and assume
the role of the every down back. While it is yet to be seen who the better running
back will be, these players are both unquestionably talented players, and at this
point, the only thing that separates them is a greater chance for Lacy to put
his talents on display; don’t let the added reps fool you into thinking that
Lacy would have been the better draft choice.
Wednesday, October 23, 2013
Looking Forward: Broncos (6-1) vs. Redskins (2-4)
Last Week: The Broncos are coming off of a 39-33 loss to the Indianapolis Colts at the "House That Peyton Built." Unfortunately, Peyton's return to Indy was a disappointing loss to a strong AFC contender, but may have been a wake-up call for Denver. Read my thoughts on last week's game here.
The Opposing Team: The Washington Redskins are coming out of a shootout game, in which they narrowly beat Josh McCown (yes, Josh McCown) and the Chicago Bears 45-41. Washington had high hopes coming into the 2013 season, with RGIII in his second season at quarterback. However, Griffin and the 'Skins are sitting at a disappointing 2-4 record. However, Griffin seems to be on his way back to regular form, rushing for 84 yards in the win last week (more than he's rushed for since Week 10 of the 2012 season).
Interesting Fact of the Week: With a win this week, the Denver Broncos would sweep the NFC East, with prior wins against the Giants, Eagles, and Cowboys. The last season that the Broncos played all four NFC East teams (2009), they only managed a 2-2 record.
Things to Watch:
Peyton Manning
It was announced on Wednesday that Manning, along with a few other veteran players, was not practicing with the rest of the team. It turns out that Manning is simply nursing a slight ankle injury, and is fully expected to play in Sunday's game. Look for Peyton to have a bounce-back game against the Redskins, provided that he is healthy. In his career, he is 14-5-0 against teams from the NFC East (3-1-0 against the Redskins). Not only is this record fantastic, but so are Manning's combined stats in these games: 102.6 QBR, 67.73% completion percentage, 292.5 passing yards per game (most against any division), and 2.32 TDs per game. Hopefully, Manning will be given more time in the pocket this week, as compared to last week, where he was hit 13 times. Unfortunately, Orlando Franklin did not practice Wednesday, and is doubtful to play Sunday, which means that Manning could be in for another long day if the rest of the line cannot compensate for the loss of their starting right tackle. Conversely, the Redskins have the 28th overall defense in the league, and only the 23rd ranked pass rush (Football Outsiders), as opposed to the Colts, who rank 12th and 7th in those categories respectively.
Demaryius Thomas vs. Deangelo Hall
It's always a treat getting to watch a great wide-receiver line up opposite one of the leagues most talented corners. DeAngelo Hall will likely be stuck with the task of covering the Broncos most explosive receiver, Demaryius Thomas on Sunday. While Calvin Johnson is undoubtedly the number one receiver in the league, Thomas is definitely not far behind in talent, and plays a similar style of game to Megatron. Johnson was able to scorch Hall in their Week 3 matchup, posting 115 yards on 7 catches, with one touchdown. Conversely, Dez Bryant, a receiver who is very similar in talent to Thomas, was only able to notch 5 receptions for 36 yards against the Redskins in Week 5. It could be argued that the Cowboys have less weapons than the Broncos in the passing game, which may have accounted for the lack of production from Bryant, who was manned-up all day. It will be interesting to see if the Broncos are able to utilize DT more than they did last week, and who gets the better of who in this intriguing one-on-one matchup.
Mike Shanahan's Return to Denver
This week will be the first time that long-time Broncos' head coach, turned Washington head-coach will be returning to Mile High with his new team. Shanahan had a long, successful career in Denver, before being fired in the 2008 season, following three straight seasons without reaching the playoffs. In his 224-game career with the Broncos, Shanahan led the team to a 138-86-0 record and back-to-back Super Bowls in 1997/1998 (with current Broncos VP John Elway at quarterback). The Broncos reached the playoffs in 7 of Shanahan's 14 seasons at the helm, posting a .616 winning percentage. Before this Sunday's game, the team will honour their former coach with a video presentation after the Redskin players are introduced. This return will not be quite as heralded as the Manning return to Indy last week, but it is always special to honour someone who has had such an impact on a franchise. I know for one, that I had a lot of respect for Shanahan during his time in Denver, and I was actually upset when he was fired. Strategy-wise, Shanahan's return to Denver will not require a great deal of adjustments, as it's been 5 years since his departure, and much of the system established under his tenure with the Broncos has been overhauled. Additionally, it would appear that Denver has an advantage heading into this game. Peyton Manning holds a 7-1-0 record when facing teams coached by Mike Shanahan (excluding the final game of the '05 season, where he threw two pass attempts before leaving a game that the Colts would eventually lose).
Von Miller
Miller got off to a bit of a rusty start to his 2013 season, after his return to the lineup was talked about a great deal throughout the week leading up to the game. To Miller's credit, he has not participated in drills involving physical contact for six weeks, and this clearly showed in the first game. With two weeks of practice and a complete game under his belt, look for one of the league's most exciting defensive players to have a bounce-back game to his usual form. Getting to the quarterback won't be easy though, as Washington has the 11th ranked pass protection offensive line, according to Football Outsiders. However, Miller hasn't gone two straight games without a sack since Weeks 3 and 4 of last season against Houston and Oakland, and should be much quicker this week after getting additional practice time.
Wesley Woodyard
Wes Woodyard practiced in full on Wednesday for the Broncos, and is expected to make his return to the lineup this week. Woodyard was definitely missed in the Colts game, both in his play and leadership on the field. The 6-year pro, who Mike Shanahan coincidentally signed as an undrafted free agent enters play with 19 solo tackles, 1.5 sacks, and 2 pass-defenses. The speedy linebacker, who has great horizontal speed and awareness, will be an integral part of containing Robert Griffin's option game. Woodyard played a large part in containing Raiders' QB, Terrelle Pryor, during the Broncos' Week 3 game, and will be an integral part in stopping RGIII this week.
RGIII
While Robert Griffin has gotten off to a not-so-spectacular start to his sophomore season, coming off ACL surgery, he has seemed to regain some of his rookie form in the past couple weeks, particularly on the ground. Griffin rushed for 84 yards in last week's win over the Bears, something he hasn't done since Week 10 of last season against the Giants. The Broncos' team of versatile linebackers will have their hands full trying to contain the speedy quarterback. However, as mentioned above, the Broncos held similarly-versatile quarterback, Terrelle Pryor, to 36 yards. Denver essentially eliminated all of Pryor's opportunities to run, so much so that he only attempted to carry the ball four times over the course of that game. RGIII is definitely more talented than Pryor, but I think that the Broncos have the right composition on defense to slow his run game down drastically.
Pass defense
While the Broncos can likely shut down the Redskins rush game, as they have to teams all season, they may struggle again against the pass, with Champ Bailey set to miss this game against his former team (5 seasons, 18 INT, 292 tackles). With Bailey out of the lineup, the Broncos will rely on a very young secondary (mean age of 24.5 years old) to contain a talented group of receivers and an offensive line who generally provides their quarterback with time to throw. The key to shutting down the passing game will be 1) an increased efficiency in pass rushing, which Von Miller can hopefully provide; 2) the containment of Pierre Garcon by Dominique Rodgers-Cromartie; and 3) the continued impressive work of the rookie Kayvon Webster, who will have an expanded role in this game with Champ out.
Broncos' running backs
Much has been made of the Ronnie Hillman fumble this week, and rightly-so. Hillman lost a fumble on what was possibly the most crucial offensive drive of the game for the Broncos. The second-year back out of San Diego State was surrounded with concerns of fumbling in his college career, and clearly this is still an issue for him. Hillman is an explosive back, likely the most explosive of the Broncos' runners. However, don't look for him to get many carries in the near future after last weeks gaffe. Look for Montee Ball to have an expanded role in this game, if Denver gets a lead. Ball will likely be given the late-game carries that Hillman has received in other games where the Broncos lead late.
Knowshon Moreno also had a rough game against the Colts' physical defense, behind a depleted offensive line. After only managing 40 yards on 15 carries in last weeks game, Moreno will look to bounce back to form this week. Through the 2013 season, he has averaged 59 rushing yards and 28 receiving yards per game, along with 8 TDs. In his fifth season, Moreno appears to finally be slightly justifying the first-round pick that the Broncos used on him in 2009 out of Georgia. The former member of the Bulldogs has also proven to be the most effective pass blocker of the Broncos' backs this season, enough reason to start him alone, based on the importance of keeping Peyton Manning healthy. I'd look for Moreno to have a big game on the ground this week, against a Washington defense that has allowed over 200 yards on the ground in their last two games.
Conclusion: The Broncos seem to have a favourable matchup in the 2-4 Redskins, as long as they can contain the versatile quarterback, Robert Griffin. Both the running and passing game should see success against a weak Redskins defense, and I fully expect both Peyton and Knowshon to bounce back from relatively weak Week 7 performances. Having a fully healthy linebacking corps this week should give the Broncos a much-needed improvement in their pass-rush, which will be important to minimize the time that their young secondary will have to maintain coverage. I expect a shoot-out in Denver, with the Broncos finding their winning ways again, while Washington slowly slips out of contention in the weak NFC East.
The Opposing Team: The Washington Redskins are coming out of a shootout game, in which they narrowly beat Josh McCown (yes, Josh McCown) and the Chicago Bears 45-41. Washington had high hopes coming into the 2013 season, with RGIII in his second season at quarterback. However, Griffin and the 'Skins are sitting at a disappointing 2-4 record. However, Griffin seems to be on his way back to regular form, rushing for 84 yards in the win last week (more than he's rushed for since Week 10 of the 2012 season).
Interesting Fact of the Week: With a win this week, the Denver Broncos would sweep the NFC East, with prior wins against the Giants, Eagles, and Cowboys. The last season that the Broncos played all four NFC East teams (2009), they only managed a 2-2 record.
Things to Watch:
Peyton Manning
It was announced on Wednesday that Manning, along with a few other veteran players, was not practicing with the rest of the team. It turns out that Manning is simply nursing a slight ankle injury, and is fully expected to play in Sunday's game. Look for Peyton to have a bounce-back game against the Redskins, provided that he is healthy. In his career, he is 14-5-0 against teams from the NFC East (3-1-0 against the Redskins). Not only is this record fantastic, but so are Manning's combined stats in these games: 102.6 QBR, 67.73% completion percentage, 292.5 passing yards per game (most against any division), and 2.32 TDs per game. Hopefully, Manning will be given more time in the pocket this week, as compared to last week, where he was hit 13 times. Unfortunately, Orlando Franklin did not practice Wednesday, and is doubtful to play Sunday, which means that Manning could be in for another long day if the rest of the line cannot compensate for the loss of their starting right tackle. Conversely, the Redskins have the 28th overall defense in the league, and only the 23rd ranked pass rush (Football Outsiders), as opposed to the Colts, who rank 12th and 7th in those categories respectively.
Demaryius Thomas vs. Deangelo Hall
It's always a treat getting to watch a great wide-receiver line up opposite one of the leagues most talented corners. DeAngelo Hall will likely be stuck with the task of covering the Broncos most explosive receiver, Demaryius Thomas on Sunday. While Calvin Johnson is undoubtedly the number one receiver in the league, Thomas is definitely not far behind in talent, and plays a similar style of game to Megatron. Johnson was able to scorch Hall in their Week 3 matchup, posting 115 yards on 7 catches, with one touchdown. Conversely, Dez Bryant, a receiver who is very similar in talent to Thomas, was only able to notch 5 receptions for 36 yards against the Redskins in Week 5. It could be argued that the Cowboys have less weapons than the Broncos in the passing game, which may have accounted for the lack of production from Bryant, who was manned-up all day. It will be interesting to see if the Broncos are able to utilize DT more than they did last week, and who gets the better of who in this intriguing one-on-one matchup.
Mike Shanahan's Return to Denver
This week will be the first time that long-time Broncos' head coach, turned Washington head-coach will be returning to Mile High with his new team. Shanahan had a long, successful career in Denver, before being fired in the 2008 season, following three straight seasons without reaching the playoffs. In his 224-game career with the Broncos, Shanahan led the team to a 138-86-0 record and back-to-back Super Bowls in 1997/1998 (with current Broncos VP John Elway at quarterback). The Broncos reached the playoffs in 7 of Shanahan's 14 seasons at the helm, posting a .616 winning percentage. Before this Sunday's game, the team will honour their former coach with a video presentation after the Redskin players are introduced. This return will not be quite as heralded as the Manning return to Indy last week, but it is always special to honour someone who has had such an impact on a franchise. I know for one, that I had a lot of respect for Shanahan during his time in Denver, and I was actually upset when he was fired. Strategy-wise, Shanahan's return to Denver will not require a great deal of adjustments, as it's been 5 years since his departure, and much of the system established under his tenure with the Broncos has been overhauled. Additionally, it would appear that Denver has an advantage heading into this game. Peyton Manning holds a 7-1-0 record when facing teams coached by Mike Shanahan (excluding the final game of the '05 season, where he threw two pass attempts before leaving a game that the Colts would eventually lose).
Von Miller
Miller got off to a bit of a rusty start to his 2013 season, after his return to the lineup was talked about a great deal throughout the week leading up to the game. To Miller's credit, he has not participated in drills involving physical contact for six weeks, and this clearly showed in the first game. With two weeks of practice and a complete game under his belt, look for one of the league's most exciting defensive players to have a bounce-back game to his usual form. Getting to the quarterback won't be easy though, as Washington has the 11th ranked pass protection offensive line, according to Football Outsiders. However, Miller hasn't gone two straight games without a sack since Weeks 3 and 4 of last season against Houston and Oakland, and should be much quicker this week after getting additional practice time.
Wesley Woodyard
Wes Woodyard practiced in full on Wednesday for the Broncos, and is expected to make his return to the lineup this week. Woodyard was definitely missed in the Colts game, both in his play and leadership on the field. The 6-year pro, who Mike Shanahan coincidentally signed as an undrafted free agent enters play with 19 solo tackles, 1.5 sacks, and 2 pass-defenses. The speedy linebacker, who has great horizontal speed and awareness, will be an integral part of containing Robert Griffin's option game. Woodyard played a large part in containing Raiders' QB, Terrelle Pryor, during the Broncos' Week 3 game, and will be an integral part in stopping RGIII this week.
RGIII
While Robert Griffin has gotten off to a not-so-spectacular start to his sophomore season, coming off ACL surgery, he has seemed to regain some of his rookie form in the past couple weeks, particularly on the ground. Griffin rushed for 84 yards in last week's win over the Bears, something he hasn't done since Week 10 of last season against the Giants. The Broncos' team of versatile linebackers will have their hands full trying to contain the speedy quarterback. However, as mentioned above, the Broncos held similarly-versatile quarterback, Terrelle Pryor, to 36 yards. Denver essentially eliminated all of Pryor's opportunities to run, so much so that he only attempted to carry the ball four times over the course of that game. RGIII is definitely more talented than Pryor, but I think that the Broncos have the right composition on defense to slow his run game down drastically.
Pass defense
While the Broncos can likely shut down the Redskins rush game, as they have to teams all season, they may struggle again against the pass, with Champ Bailey set to miss this game against his former team (5 seasons, 18 INT, 292 tackles). With Bailey out of the lineup, the Broncos will rely on a very young secondary (mean age of 24.5 years old) to contain a talented group of receivers and an offensive line who generally provides their quarterback with time to throw. The key to shutting down the passing game will be 1) an increased efficiency in pass rushing, which Von Miller can hopefully provide; 2) the containment of Pierre Garcon by Dominique Rodgers-Cromartie; and 3) the continued impressive work of the rookie Kayvon Webster, who will have an expanded role in this game with Champ out.
Broncos' running backs
Much has been made of the Ronnie Hillman fumble this week, and rightly-so. Hillman lost a fumble on what was possibly the most crucial offensive drive of the game for the Broncos. The second-year back out of San Diego State was surrounded with concerns of fumbling in his college career, and clearly this is still an issue for him. Hillman is an explosive back, likely the most explosive of the Broncos' runners. However, don't look for him to get many carries in the near future after last weeks gaffe. Look for Montee Ball to have an expanded role in this game, if Denver gets a lead. Ball will likely be given the late-game carries that Hillman has received in other games where the Broncos lead late.
Knowshon Moreno also had a rough game against the Colts' physical defense, behind a depleted offensive line. After only managing 40 yards on 15 carries in last weeks game, Moreno will look to bounce back to form this week. Through the 2013 season, he has averaged 59 rushing yards and 28 receiving yards per game, along with 8 TDs. In his fifth season, Moreno appears to finally be slightly justifying the first-round pick that the Broncos used on him in 2009 out of Georgia. The former member of the Bulldogs has also proven to be the most effective pass blocker of the Broncos' backs this season, enough reason to start him alone, based on the importance of keeping Peyton Manning healthy. I'd look for Moreno to have a big game on the ground this week, against a Washington defense that has allowed over 200 yards on the ground in their last two games.
Conclusion: The Broncos seem to have a favourable matchup in the 2-4 Redskins, as long as they can contain the versatile quarterback, Robert Griffin. Both the running and passing game should see success against a weak Redskins defense, and I fully expect both Peyton and Knowshon to bounce back from relatively weak Week 7 performances. Having a fully healthy linebacking corps this week should give the Broncos a much-needed improvement in their pass-rush, which will be important to minimize the time that their young secondary will have to maintain coverage. I expect a shoot-out in Denver, with the Broncos finding their winning ways again, while Washington slowly slips out of contention in the weak NFC East.
Subscribe to:
Posts (Atom)