Should I Stay or Should I Go Now: Broncos Free Agents of 2014

The 2013 season has come to an abrupt and heartbreaking finale for the Denver Broncos, and they do not have time to dwell on that heartbreak for long, as the team must look forward to the off-season and how they are going to keep this team in contention for another Super Bowl. This means that the team is going to have to make some quick, but smart decisions about which of their 16 potential free agents they'd like to keep around, and devise a plan for how they will fill the holes that remain once some of these players inevitably wind up on other NFL teams. Of the 16 Broncos players that are set to hit free agency, seven of them held starting roles for Denver this past season; I'm here to take a look at who should stay, who the Broncos should let go, and how they may go about replacing these players.

Wide Receiver- Eric Decker
Much to the dismay of Jessie James and Decker's many female fans in Denver, the Broncos will undoubtedly have to part ways with Decker come the off-season. Decker will be a hot commodity in the free agent market, and he no-doubt knows that; he'll likely collect a big pay-cheque from another NFL team, unless he's willing to take a pay-cut to stay in Denver. With Demaryius Thomas, Wes Welker, and Julius Thomas all still under contract for another season, it's likely in the Broncos' best interest to wave goodbye to #87, as unfortunate as that is. As far as replacing Decker goes, the Broncos have a couple options: They will have to make a decision on another free-agent receiver, Andre Caldwell, who performed well this season when called upon, making 16 receptions on 29 targets, for 200 yards and 3 touchdowns. Caldwell may be a cheap, yet efficient way to fill the void of Decker, if he is able to replicate that success over the full course of a season with more snaps. If the Broncos are not able to maintain Caldwell, they may be required to draft a receiver in the upcoming draft, a draft that is deep with receivers (15 projected to be taken in the first 3 rounds). As a final option, Denver could wait to see who hits the free-agent market from other teams, although they are in no position to get into a bidding war over any big names. The Broncos would be smart to re-sign Caldwell for an affordable price, and draft a receiver in one of the later rounds of the draft. A couple possibilities to replace Decker's size and speed are Donte Moncrief (Ole Miss) near the end of the third round, or Pittsburgh's Devin Street towards the end of the fourth round of the draft.

Running Back- Knowshon Moreno
Knowshon Moreno had the breakout season that everyone has been waiting for (and maybe believed would never come) in 2013, and is now ready to head up a very weak class of free agent running backs. Moreno will be worth a lot of money on the open market, with teams such as the Browns, Raiders, Cardinals, Giants, and Dolphins all likely looking for someone to fill a void at the position. Moreno is probably the easiest of Denver's potential free agents to replace, with Montee Ball waiting to take the number one spot at running back. Ball showed towards the season that he has adjusted to running at the NFL level, and has greatly improved his pass-blocking as well. Ball will likely be back in the work-horse role that he occupied in Wisconsin come next season, with Ronnie Hillman and CJ Anderson both under contract as back-ups. The Broncos may look to take a running back later in the draft, or sign a smaller name in free agency in order to supplement the backfield. Anthony Dixon of the 49ers would be an intriguing, and likely cheap, option if San Francisco allows him to hit the open market.

Cornerback- Dominique Rodgers-Cromartie
DRC was probably one of the best off-season signings in the NFL last year, based solely on how cheap the Broncos were able to sign him for. Now, with a full season of solid football under his belt, and the Broncos needing to conserve cap space, it's unlikely DRC will be back in the blue and orange without taking a pay cut to be there. The Broncos are in a tough situation when it comes to their secondary as the off-season approaches; Chris Harris is a restricted free agent, who absolutely must be re-signed, Champ Bailey's play continues to falter as he ages, meaning he'll need to restructure to stay with the Broncos, Quentin Jammer should be on his way out after a poor showing all season, which leaves the Broncos with only Kayvon Webster and Tony Carter under contract for 2014 right now. With Harris likely due a big pay-upgrade due to his excellent level of play, it likely leaves DRC on the outside, unless he's willing to be paid less to play on the Broncos. One thing that is working in the favour of the Broncos in this situation is the abundance of CBs that have the potential to hit the market around the league, which would lower DRC's value; Vontae Davis, Brent Grimes, Captain Munnerlyn, Alterraun Verner, and Sam Shields are just some of the talent that may be available. My personal preference is that the Broncos keep Rodgers-Cromartie around if they can, but ultimately they will likely let him test the market and find his worth, before making any hasty decisions. As I noted before, there is the potential for a lot of talent to hit the market, which should make DRC replaceable if need be.


Guard-Zane Beadles
Zane Beadles was part of the rock-solid (until the Super Bowl) Denver offensive line that allowed the lowest quarterback pressure percentage in the league. Beadles was not necessarily that impressive on his own over the course of the season, but the upcoming draft is not deep with guards by any means, and neither is the free agency market, which will up the value of the 2010 second-round draft pick. As with DRC, the Broncos will allow Beadles to test the waters of free agency to find his worth in the market, before making an attempt to sign him. If the Broncos must replace the third-year guard, they have the option of moving Orlando Franklin inside to guard, and have Chris Clark, who stepped up big-time at left tackle this season, move to right tackle for the 2014 season.


Defensive End- Shaun Phillips
Shaun Phillips, like Rodgers-Cromartie, was another one of Elway's wonderful 2013 free agency signings that was so brilliant because of the price. Phillips provided the Broncos with 13 sacks and 30 tackles for the cheap price of $1.4 million. If the Broncos were able to sign Phillips to the same contract, or even slightly higher, it would be a smart investment to make. Phillips showed that he can still play hard at the age of 32, and was a big reason why the Broncos were able to survive without Von Miller for much of the season. Phillips is getting up there in age, and is at the point in his career where he is pushing for a championship; he'd likely be willing to work around the Broncos' cap needs in order to get a contract worked out. If Phillips' demands too high of a price though, the Broncos are in a position to let him walk. Von Miller is expected to be healthy for the 2014 season, and Malik Jackson, who was exceptional against the run this season, and chipped in 7 sacks of his own, is also under contract. Additionally, Jeremy Mincey, who played very well for the Broncos during the final stretch of the season, will likely be an affordable re-sign for the Broncos, which would make losing Phillips easier. Ultimately, the Broncos will likely need to choose between signing Phillips or Robert Ayers at the defensive end position, as signing both would probably be too costly.

Linebacker- Wesley Woodyard and Paris Lenon
Both of the Broncos middle linebackers this season, one who played 73.3% of the defensive snaps (Woodyard), and another who played on 31.5% of all defensive snaps (Lenon) are both eligible for free agency this off-season. Woodyard, one of the Broncos defensive captains, had a poor showing this season, which allowed Lenon to play on more snaps over the second half of the season. Both linebackers are by no means must-signs for Denver, but I'd like to see them sign Woodyard to an extension. Woodyard has been one of the leaders of the defense over the past few seasons, and it truly would be a shame to see him go. Woodyard's poor play throughout the course of the season may actually benefit the Broncos, because it means his value will not be as high and he may be willing to sign for less than the 3.25 million he made in 2013. Paris Lenon is a player who the Broncos should consider to provide depth at linebacker if he's willing to sign for somewhere in the ball-park of $1 million annually; otherwise, his play is replaceable for cheaper.

The Broncos' toughest decisions will come at cornerback and defensive end, where they have the potential to look a lot different next year. I have full confidence in John Elway working his off-season magic, although his magic may be hindered by the big cap hits of Peyton Manning, Champ Bailey, and Joel Dreesen. Dreesen is a potential buy-out option for the Broncos, which would open up $2.5 million in cap space, and Champ should be willing to re-structure his contract in order to stay with the team. Champ, as much of a great guy and player as he is, has not played up to his salary over the past couple seasons. Additionally, Peyton Manning should think about a re-structure as well, if he wants to enable Elway to put a competitive team around him to make another run at a Super Bowl.

2014 NFL Draft Scouting Report: Derek Carr (QB: Fresno State)

We're just under five months away from the 2014 NFL Draft, which will be held on May 8th of this year, but since the majority of NFL teams are officially ruled out of contention for the Super Bowl, there are already multitudes of people looking forward to the day they hope their team can find that piece to put them in contention for the championship in years to come. It seems that there can be no level of analysis that is too overkill in regards to this event, as analysts and fans alike have already begun projecting who will take which player. While it is possible to at least come up with a list of players that each team should be interested in, based on their needs, it is nearly impossible to accurately predict the exact manner in which the draft plays out; instead, I think it is more valuable to take an in-depth look at each prospect available and identify their skills and how those will translate to the NFL. Over the next few weeks, I'm going to be taking a look at game-tape of some of the big name players, as well as some lesser-known prospects, and providing my take on what they could bring to an NFL franchise who is lucky, or unlucky enough to draft them.

It's never been more important than now to have a top-notch quarterback in order to be successful in the NFL; in fact, in the AFC, where four of the most quarterback-needy teams in the upcoming draft reside, the top seven quarterback ratings belong to the top seven teams in the conference. The draft class of 2014 looks as though it might be the deepest at quarterback in a few years, and most certainly more talented throughout than the class of 2013. Five teams head into this draft in dire need of a franchise quarterback to build around, including Cleveland, Houston, Jacksonville, Oakland, Minnesota. Other teams that may also be in the market for a quarterback at some point during, or closely following the draft are the Titans, Jets, and Cardinals.  Each Thursday, throughout the weeks leading up to the draft, I'll be posting a different quarterback who I either think is fit for a job in the NFL, a hidden gem that could be drafted late in the draft, or an overrated prospect who does not deserve his high regards.

Thursday, January 16, 2014- Derek Carr:

Background: Derek Carr is a 6'3", 205 lb quarterback from Bakersfield, California, born on March 28, 1991 (age 22). Derek, the younger brother of former Houston Texans and New York Giants quarterback, David Carr, is a Senior from Fresno State and has spent three years as the Bulldogs' starting QB.

Stats (per ProFootballReference): 

	Passing
Year	School	Conf	Class	Pos	G	Cmp	Att	Pct	Yds	Y/A	AY/A	TD	Int	Rate
*2009	Fresno State	WAC		QB	5	10	14	71.4	112	8.0	8.0	0	0	138.6
2011	Fresno State	WAC		QB	13	279	446	62.6	3544	7.9	8.2	26	9	144.5
*2012	Fresno State	MWC		QB	13	344	511	67.3	4104	8.0	8.9	37	7	155.9
*2013	Fresno State	MWC	SR	QB	13	454	659	68.9	5083	7.7	8.7	50	8	156.3
Career	Fresno State					1087	1630	66.7	12843	7.9	8.6	113	24	152.8

Awards/Records: 

• Carr finished the 2013 college football season 8th in voting for the Heisman Award for most outstanding player in the nation. 
• 2012 and 2013 Mountain West Conference Offensive Player of the Year. 
• 17th in the NCAA for all-time passing TDs; 14th in the NCAA for all-time passing TDs

Scouting Report: If there is one thing that is for sure about Derek Carr, it is that he can sling a football to pretty much any area of the field. Carr makes short and mid-range passes very accurately and can put the ball into tight windows with ease (A); unfortunately, the ability to throw into tight windows, and the confidence that comes with this skill, can lead to forcing the ball to receivers that are covered too tightly (B). The senior from Fresno State has the ability to get screen passes to the outside of the field quickly and efficiently, which was a big part of his game with the Bulldogs. The fade throw is likely Carr's most fine-tuned pass and he does not hesitate to use it with precision in the red zone (C). Carr does not run often (averaged 54 carries, 63.3 yards per season at Fresno State) and is not a quarterback who will beat you with his legs; however, he has shown the ability to extend plays to get off a throw, when needed, and has surprising quickness (fastest QB 40-yard-dash time in Fresno State history). Although he picks up blitzes early, Carr has a tendency to step back and throw off of his back foot when under pressure, rather than stepping up in the pocket to make the pass. In general, Carr is slightly skittish in the pocket, and will not set his feet to make throws when under duress. The majority of the passing plays within the Fresno State offense were designed for Carr to make one mid-length or deep read and then check down to a running back or receiver on a swing route or crossing route across the middle, if the deeper receiver was covered (D). Although these reads are fairly simple, the precision and smarts that Carr employed using them was very apparent, routinely making smart check-downs when the deeper option was unavailable. While this may have been a systematic aspect of Fresno State's offense, it certainly is unfortunate that Carr was not given the chance to show his ability (or maybe lack-there-of) to make multiple reads against a defense.  In conclusion, Carr's strong, accurate arm and ability to make many different throws would be a great fit for a West Coast offense. There may be some growing pains learning to make more complicated reads against NFL coverages, and Carr must work on developing a more confident pocket presence when under pressure, but most signs point to him being a safe selection in the upcoming draft. While the combine will obviously effect his final evaluation by scouts, I'd guess that Derek Carr will likely end up being a mid-to-late first round pick for the Vikings or Browns, depending on whether or not Cleveland chooses a quarterback with their first choice at 4th overall.

A)

B)

C)

D)

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