2014 NFL Draft Scouting Report: Derek Carr (QB: Fresno State)

We're just under five months away from the 2014 NFL Draft, which will be held on May 8th of this year, but since the majority of NFL teams are officially ruled out of contention for the Super Bowl, there are already multitudes of people looking forward to the day they hope their team can find that piece to put them in contention for the championship in years to come. It seems that there can be no level of analysis that is too overkill in regards to this event, as analysts and fans alike have already begun projecting who will take which player. While it is possible to at least come up with a list of players that each team should be interested in, based on their needs, it is nearly impossible to accurately predict the exact manner in which the draft plays out; instead, I think it is more valuable to take an in-depth look at each prospect available and identify their skills and how those will translate to the NFL. Over the next few weeks, I'm going to be taking a look at game-tape of some of the big name players, as well as some lesser-known prospects, and providing my take on what they could bring to an NFL franchise who is lucky, or unlucky enough to draft them.

It's never been more important than now to have a top-notch quarterback in order to be successful in the NFL; in fact, in the AFC, where four of the most quarterback-needy teams in the upcoming draft reside, the top seven quarterback ratings belong to the top seven teams in the conference. The draft class of 2014 looks as though it might be the deepest at quarterback in a few years, and most certainly more talented throughout than the class of 2013. Five teams head into this draft in dire need of a franchise quarterback to build around, including Cleveland, Houston, Jacksonville, Oakland, Minnesota. Other teams that may also be in the market for a quarterback at some point during, or closely following the draft are the Titans, Jets, and Cardinals.  Each Thursday, throughout the weeks leading up to the draft, I'll be posting a different quarterback who I either think is fit for a job in the NFL, a hidden gem that could be drafted late in the draft, or an overrated prospect who does not deserve his high regards.

Thursday, January 16, 2014- Derek Carr:

Background: Derek Carr is a 6'3", 205 lb quarterback from Bakersfield, California, born on March 28, 1991 (age 22). Derek, the younger brother of former Houston Texans and New York Giants quarterback, David Carr, is a Senior from Fresno State and has spent three years as the Bulldogs' starting QB.

Stats (per ProFootballReference): 

	Passing
Year	School	Conf	Class	Pos	G	Cmp	Att	Pct	Yds	Y/A	AY/A	TD	Int	Rate
*2009	Fresno State	WAC		QB	5	10	14	71.4	112	8.0	8.0	0	0	138.6
2011	Fresno State	WAC		QB	13	279	446	62.6	3544	7.9	8.2	26	9	144.5
*2012	Fresno State	MWC		QB	13	344	511	67.3	4104	8.0	8.9	37	7	155.9
*2013	Fresno State	MWC	SR	QB	13	454	659	68.9	5083	7.7	8.7	50	8	156.3
Career	Fresno State					1087	1630	66.7	12843	7.9	8.6	113	24	152.8

Awards/Records: 

• Carr finished the 2013 college football season 8th in voting for the Heisman Award for most outstanding player in the nation. 
• 2012 and 2013 Mountain West Conference Offensive Player of the Year. 
• 17th in the NCAA for all-time passing TDs; 14th in the NCAA for all-time passing TDs

Scouting Report: If there is one thing that is for sure about Derek Carr, it is that he can sling a football to pretty much any area of the field. Carr makes short and mid-range passes very accurately and can put the ball into tight windows with ease (A); unfortunately, the ability to throw into tight windows, and the confidence that comes with this skill, can lead to forcing the ball to receivers that are covered too tightly (B). The senior from Fresno State has the ability to get screen passes to the outside of the field quickly and efficiently, which was a big part of his game with the Bulldogs. The fade throw is likely Carr's most fine-tuned pass and he does not hesitate to use it with precision in the red zone (C). Carr does not run often (averaged 54 carries, 63.3 yards per season at Fresno State) and is not a quarterback who will beat you with his legs; however, he has shown the ability to extend plays to get off a throw, when needed, and has surprising quickness (fastest QB 40-yard-dash time in Fresno State history). Although he picks up blitzes early, Carr has a tendency to step back and throw off of his back foot when under pressure, rather than stepping up in the pocket to make the pass. In general, Carr is slightly skittish in the pocket, and will not set his feet to make throws when under duress. The majority of the passing plays within the Fresno State offense were designed for Carr to make one mid-length or deep read and then check down to a running back or receiver on a swing route or crossing route across the middle, if the deeper receiver was covered (D). Although these reads are fairly simple, the precision and smarts that Carr employed using them was very apparent, routinely making smart check-downs when the deeper option was unavailable. While this may have been a systematic aspect of Fresno State's offense, it certainly is unfortunate that Carr was not given the chance to show his ability (or maybe lack-there-of) to make multiple reads against a defense.  In conclusion, Carr's strong, accurate arm and ability to make many different throws would be a great fit for a West Coast offense. There may be some growing pains learning to make more complicated reads against NFL coverages, and Carr must work on developing a more confident pocket presence when under pressure, but most signs point to him being a safe selection in the upcoming draft. While the combine will obviously effect his final evaluation by scouts, I'd guess that Derek Carr will likely end up being a mid-to-late first round pick for the Vikings or Browns, depending on whether or not Cleveland chooses a quarterback with their first choice at 4th overall.

A)

B)

C)

D)

.

Ball or Lacy? The Case For Montee Ball

If you’re a Broncos fan, you’re certainly familiar with the narrative, in the 2013 NFL Draft, the Denver Broncos selected Montee Ball with the 58^th overall selection of the draft, passing on Eddie Lacy, who was drafted by the Packers with pick 61. At first glance, the choice of Ball over Lacy looks like a no-brainer, when examining both backs’ college statistics. Eddie Lacy racked up 2740 total yards and 32 TDs in his three seasons in Alabama, while Ball doubled both of those totals, amassing 5738 total yards and 83 TDs in his four seasons spent as the starting back for the Wisconsin Badgers. Regardless of his collegiate statistical advantages, there have been questions about whether or not the Broncos made the right selection in Ball, questions that get louder and louder with the continued success of Lacy as the Packers lead back, while Ball splits time in the Broncos backfield with Knowshon Moreno. While the reasoning behind these questions is understandable, they are not fair to ask at this point in both young backs’ careers, and they are far from being answered; one thing is for sure though, Montee Ball has shown equal signs of a promising career in the NFL as Lacy has.

            The primary reason that these questions are unfair is simply the workload and the situations that both backs are in. Eddie Lacy earned the starting role out of training camp in Green Bay, and was immediately given a heavy workload in the opening weeks of the season; since the start of the 2013 season, when healthy, Lacy has seen less than fifteen touches just once. In addition to Lacy getting starter snaps from the beginning of the season, the Packers began to rely much more heavily on the rookie when star quarterback, Aaron Rodgers, went down with a broken collarbone in Week 8; since then, the Pack have given Lacy an average of 19 carries per game and he’s been a valuable safety net for the backup QBs, hauling in 19 of his 31 grabs over the past seven weeks. On the other side of the spectrum, Montee Ball started the 2013 season in a battle with two talented backs, Knowshon Moreno and Ronnie Hillman, who each had a full season of learning Peyton Manning’s complicated offense under their belts. Moreno won the starting job, and has managed to hold onto it due to strong quarterback protection and passionate rushing performances; however, Ball has managed to be an effective change-up back and has provided some solid pass protection as of late. In addition to that, Ball has shown some real explosiveness and an ability to run at the NFL level in the action that he has seen. Anyone who watched the Broncos’ Week 11 matchup against the Chiefs, where Montee put up 117 yards in just 13 carries can see the potential that Ball has as a runner. Clearly, the sheer quantity of opportunities that Lacy has been given gives him an advantage over Ball, prompting people to unfairly suggest that he is the better back; statements that become more absurd when looking at the numbers that the two backs have respectively managed.

           

	Rush Yards	Yards/Game	Yards/Attempt	Attempts/Game	TDs
Montee Ball	455	32.5	4.3	7.6	4
Eddie Lacy	1028	79.1	4.1	19.1	8

            Simply observing the two backs’ rushing statistics reveals an obviously heavier workload for Lacy, resulting in more yards, yards per game, attempts per game, and touchdowns; however, Ball has actually averaged more yards per attempt, suggesting that he would have similar numbers to Lacy if given more opportunities. The Broncos and Packers run similar offenses, the Broncos averaging 41.6 (58%) pass attempts and 29.6 (42%) rushing attempts per game, while the Packers average 35.1 (55%) pass attempts and 28.2 (45%) rushing attempts per game, which makes the two teams easy to compare. If Montee Ball were to maintain his 4.3 yards per attempt, as well as his 26.5 carries per touchdown, and was given the same percentage of the load of work in Denver that Eddie Lacy receives in Green Bay (62.7%), rather than playing second fiddle to Knowshon Moreno, the first-year back’s pro-rated stats alongside Eddie Lacy’s numbers would look as follows:

	Rush Yards	Yards/Game	Yards/Attempt	Attempts/Game	TDs
Montee Ball	1114	79.6	4.3	18.5	9
Eddie Lacy	1028	79.1	4.1	19.1	8

            With 62.7% of the Broncos’ rushing workload, Montee Ball would receive approximately 260 carries, which yield the numbers in the above table. With an equal workload to Lacy, Ball’s pro-rated statistics indicate that the rookie back out of Wisconsin would have equal, if not better numbers than Eddie Lacy. The Packers’ and Broncos’ offensive lines appear to be equally talented, with the 10th and 1lth ranked rush offensive lines respectively per Football Outsiders, meaning that this would not be a factor in production between the two. When you look at more advanced statistics regarding the two backs, like the one below, it reveals that Montee Ball have a higher first down rate on his carries, as well as a higher TD rate. Additionally, you see that Ball has had a slightly harder time holding onto the ball (which got him into the early season doghouse), but you also see that both backs have provided excellent quarterback protection with 0% sack rates.

	First Down Rate (Rush)	TD Rate	Fumble Rate	30+ Yd Rushes	Sack Rate
Montee Ball	26.7%	3.8%	1.9%	1	0%
Eddie Lacy	22.2%	3.2%	0.4%	3	0%

In addition to showing similar talent in rushing and pass protection, Montee Ball and Eddie Lacy have very similar receiving numbers out of the back field, with Ball averaging half the catches as Lacy, and exactly half the yards. Again, if the numbers that Ball has put up were pro-rated using the same workload as Lacy, it can be seen that the Badger alum would have eerily similar numbers to those of Lacy.

	Rec. Yards	Yards/Game	Yards/Catch	Catches/Game	TDs
Montee Ball	123	8.8	7.2	1.2	0
Eddie Lacy	236	18.2	7.6	2.4	0

            Eddie Lacy’s has 31 total receptions this year, giving him 9.70% of Green Bay’s passing completions. If Montee Ball were to have an equal portion of the Broncos’ pass completions, he would have approximately 31 as well (30.846), which would give him pro-rated receiving stats as follows (assuming he continued to average 7.2 yards per catch):

	Rec. Yards	Yards/Game	Yards/Catch	Catches/Game	TDs
Montee Ball	222	15.9	7.2	2.2	0
Eddie Lacy	236	18.2	7.6	2.4	0

            While clearly these numbers are built upon the assumption that Ball would maintain his average numbers across the same amount of work as Lacy, it appears as though the backs have shown similar promise for each of their teams in the play that they’ve been given. There is no question that both running backs are going to be premier players for their teams in the NFL in years to come, Lacy simply has been given the opportunity to do so early in his career. Meanwhile, Montee Ball is stuck behind Knowshon Moreno, who is having a huge breakout year for the Broncos, and is arguably the Broncos’ MVP behind Peyton Manning. It’s safe to say that even if the Broncos had drafted Lacy, he would probably be playing a secondary role to Moreno, who still would have had the advantage of knowing the pass-protection schemes and the intricate play calls of Peyton Manning from the start of the season. The Broncos will be in an interesting position in the offseason, when Moreno becomes an unrestricted free agent. Denver will have to choose between keeping Moreno at a much higher price, now that he has proven he can be a number one back, or cut ties with Moreno and hand the reins to Montee Ball, who appears to be the future franchise back. While I love the passion and play of Knowshon, if the price were too high to keep him around, I have no doubt that Montee Ball could come in and do exactly what everyone hoped he could when the Broncos drafted him, and assume the role of the every down back. While it is yet to be seen who the better running back will be, these players are both unquestionably talented players, and at this point, the only thing that separates them is a greater chance for Lacy to put his talents on display; don’t let the added reps fool you into thinking that Lacy would have been the better draft choice.