2014 NFL Draft Scouting Report: Derek Carr (QB: Fresno State)

We're just under five months away from the 2014 NFL Draft, which will be held on May 8th of this year, but since the majority of NFL teams are officially ruled out of contention for the Super Bowl, there are already multitudes of people looking forward to the day they hope their team can find that piece to put them in contention for the championship in years to come. It seems that there can be no level of analysis that is too overkill in regards to this event, as analysts and fans alike have already begun projecting who will take which player. While it is possible to at least come up with a list of players that each team should be interested in, based on their needs, it is nearly impossible to accurately predict the exact manner in which the draft plays out; instead, I think it is more valuable to take an in-depth look at each prospect available and identify their skills and how those will translate to the NFL. Over the next few weeks, I'm going to be taking a look at game-tape of some of the big name players, as well as some lesser-known prospects, and providing my take on what they could bring to an NFL franchise who is lucky, or unlucky enough to draft them.

It's never been more important than now to have a top-notch quarterback in order to be successful in the NFL; in fact, in the AFC, where four of the most quarterback-needy teams in the upcoming draft reside, the top seven quarterback ratings belong to the top seven teams in the conference. The draft class of 2014 looks as though it might be the deepest at quarterback in a few years, and most certainly more talented throughout than the class of 2013. Five teams head into this draft in dire need of a franchise quarterback to build around, including Cleveland, Houston, Jacksonville, Oakland, Minnesota. Other teams that may also be in the market for a quarterback at some point during, or closely following the draft are the Titans, Jets, and Cardinals.  Each Thursday, throughout the weeks leading up to the draft, I'll be posting a different quarterback who I either think is fit for a job in the NFL, a hidden gem that could be drafted late in the draft, or an overrated prospect who does not deserve his high regards.

Thursday, January 16, 2014- Derek Carr:

Background: Derek Carr is a 6'3", 205 lb quarterback from Bakersfield, California, born on March 28, 1991 (age 22). Derek, the younger brother of former Houston Texans and New York Giants quarterback, David Carr, is a Senior from Fresno State and has spent three years as the Bulldogs' starting QB.

Stats (per ProFootballReference): 

	Passing
Year	School	Conf	Class	Pos	G	Cmp	Att	Pct	Yds	Y/A	AY/A	TD	Int	Rate
*2009	Fresno State	WAC		QB	5	10	14	71.4	112	8.0	8.0	0	0	138.6
2011	Fresno State	WAC		QB	13	279	446	62.6	3544	7.9	8.2	26	9	144.5
*2012	Fresno State	MWC		QB	13	344	511	67.3	4104	8.0	8.9	37	7	155.9
*2013	Fresno State	MWC	SR	QB	13	454	659	68.9	5083	7.7	8.7	50	8	156.3
Career	Fresno State					1087	1630	66.7	12843	7.9	8.6	113	24	152.8

Awards/Records: 

• Carr finished the 2013 college football season 8th in voting for the Heisman Award for most outstanding player in the nation. 
• 2012 and 2013 Mountain West Conference Offensive Player of the Year. 
• 17th in the NCAA for all-time passing TDs; 14th in the NCAA for all-time passing TDs

Scouting Report: If there is one thing that is for sure about Derek Carr, it is that he can sling a football to pretty much any area of the field. Carr makes short and mid-range passes very accurately and can put the ball into tight windows with ease (A); unfortunately, the ability to throw into tight windows, and the confidence that comes with this skill, can lead to forcing the ball to receivers that are covered too tightly (B). The senior from Fresno State has the ability to get screen passes to the outside of the field quickly and efficiently, which was a big part of his game with the Bulldogs. The fade throw is likely Carr's most fine-tuned pass and he does not hesitate to use it with precision in the red zone (C). Carr does not run often (averaged 54 carries, 63.3 yards per season at Fresno State) and is not a quarterback who will beat you with his legs; however, he has shown the ability to extend plays to get off a throw, when needed, and has surprising quickness (fastest QB 40-yard-dash time in Fresno State history). Although he picks up blitzes early, Carr has a tendency to step back and throw off of his back foot when under pressure, rather than stepping up in the pocket to make the pass. In general, Carr is slightly skittish in the pocket, and will not set his feet to make throws when under duress. The majority of the passing plays within the Fresno State offense were designed for Carr to make one mid-length or deep read and then check down to a running back or receiver on a swing route or crossing route across the middle, if the deeper receiver was covered (D). Although these reads are fairly simple, the precision and smarts that Carr employed using them was very apparent, routinely making smart check-downs when the deeper option was unavailable. While this may have been a systematic aspect of Fresno State's offense, it certainly is unfortunate that Carr was not given the chance to show his ability (or maybe lack-there-of) to make multiple reads against a defense.  In conclusion, Carr's strong, accurate arm and ability to make many different throws would be a great fit for a West Coast offense. There may be some growing pains learning to make more complicated reads against NFL coverages, and Carr must work on developing a more confident pocket presence when under pressure, but most signs point to him being a safe selection in the upcoming draft. While the combine will obviously effect his final evaluation by scouts, I'd guess that Derek Carr will likely end up being a mid-to-late first round pick for the Vikings or Browns, depending on whether or not Cleveland chooses a quarterback with their first choice at 4th overall.

A)

B)

C)

D)

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