The Denver Broncos and New England Patriots are preparing for their second, and drastically more important, meeting of the 2013 NFL season, this one for a chance to play in Super Bowl XLVII. The first time the two teams played each other this season was a wild one in Week 12 at Foxboro; the Broncos took a 24-0 lead into half, only to have the Pats storm back and tie it in regulation, and eventually win 34-31 in overtime. In that game, the Broncos were dealt their second loss of the season, while the Pats secured their eighth win of the season. Both teams followed up that cold night in Foxboro with four wins and one loss, the Broncos rounding out their season with a 13-3 record and the first seed in the AFC, while the Pats claimed the second seed in the conference with a 12-4 final record. Each team followed up their 4-1 end to the season with a bye during Wild Card weekend and a home-field win in the Divisional Round, ending the seasons of the Chargers and Colts. While both teams have followed similar paths to get to this AFC Championship Game in Denver, there have been a lot of changes for both Denver and New England since that Week 12 game, all of which will have an impact on Sunday's matchup.
1. Defensive Injuries
Both Broncos and Pats have been plagued by injuries since their Week 12 matchup, each losing some key members on the defensive side of the ball. The Broncos will head into the AFC Championship Game without star linebacker, Von Miller, and exceptional slot cornerback, Chris Harris, who both suffered season-ending ACL injuries in Week 16 and the Divisional playoffs respectively. Miller's injury ended what has been a disappointing season all-around for him in which he ended up playing in just 9 of the team's 17 games (so far). Harris, meanwhile, was having a second consecutive season in which he excelled, ranking fourth in tackles (65), tied for first in interceptions (3), and second on the Broncos in passes defended (16). While it is unseen how the Broncos will adjust without Harris in the lineup, their defense does not appear to have felt the loss of Von Miller in their pass rush. Nate Irving, Shaun Phillips, Robert Ayers, and Jeremy Mincey, the group charged with replacing Miller in the pass rush, have combined for 7.0 sacks in the three games since Von's injury. Harris' reps on defense will likely be split between Champ Bailey, Kayvon Webster, Quentin Jammer, and Tony Carter, although Harris believes it should be Carter. Whoever does step into Harris' role will be hard-pressed to play up to the standards of one of the league's best cover corners, as this injury most definitely will open up a hole in the secondary for Tom Brady to exploit. In addition to these two key players going down, the Broncos lost a big part of their interior defense, when Kevin Vickerson was placed on IR following the Week 12 game against the Pats. Malik Jackson and Sylvester Williams have excelled in Vickerson's stead, which has not only prevented the Broncos' run defense to regress, but has actually boosted their play.
On the other side of the field, New England enters Sunday's game third leading tackler, Brandon Spikes, who was placed on IR after Week 16. Additionally, Dont'a Hightower, the team's tackle leader in 2013 is questionable to play in Sunday's matchup with an ankle injury. Rookie linebacker, Jamie Collins, who provided a spark on the Pats' defense last week, making three tackles, along with an INT and a sack, will be heavily relied upon to have an equal impact on this game, with the Pats potentially missing two of their starting linebackers.
2. Offensive Tendencies
Since the last time these two teams met, one offense has changed drastically in the way that they move the ball, while the other offense has just kept chugging along like the finely-tuned machine that it is. The Patriots are the first of the two teams; since the Week 12 meeting between the two, their offense has slowly been molded into a prominent run team, as opposed to a pass-first offense. Up to and including the Broncos game, the Patriots' offense was averaging 245 passing yards and 125.9 rushing yards per game; following the Broncos game, they have averaged 262.83 passing yards and 152.3 rushing yards per game. Obviously these numbers suggest that the Patriots have improved in both areas of their offense, passing and running more effectively; however, the biggest change has taken place over the course of their final two regular season games and Divisional playoff game. In their last three games, the Pats are averaging an extremely low 152.3 passing yards per game, and a huge 214.3 rushing yards per game. Luckily, the Pats' new-found love for the run plays into the strengths of the Broncos defense as of late; over the three weeks that the Pats have averaged over 200 yards on the ground in each game, the Broncos have held opponents to just 72 yards rushing on average. While New England has averaged 5.16 yards per carry over those three weeks, and have broken off four 25+ yard runs, the Broncos defense has been equally stellar, allowing just 3.36 yards per carry and only one run of 15+ yards over that span. The team who is able to continue to dominate the battle in the trenches at the line of scrimmage will likely be the victor in this one.
While New England's offense has undergone big changes over the past seven weeks, the Broncos' offense has continued strong and never faltered along the way. When you look at Denver's offense, you see a perfect picture of consistency and balance; the Broncos averaged 330.6 passing yards and 121 rush yards per game up until Week 12, and then went on to finish the season with averages of 339.7 passing yards and 112.5 rushing yards per game. Over the last three weeks, the story is no different, with the Broncos climbing back up to 123.7 rushing yards per game on the backs of Knowshon Moreno and Montee Ball, while Peyton has remained a dominant force with 320.3 passing yards per game. The Broncos' balance and consistency on offense makes them unpredictable and dangerous from many angles, and as newly-signed Bronco and former Patriot DB Marquice Cole stated in an interview this week, "Peyton Manning has seen every defense. So there's nothing I can tell him that he doesn't already know." The Patriots' defense will have its hands full trying to defend the wide array of weapons that are at the disposal of one of the best quarterbacks to ever play the game.
3. Tight End Swap
The last time the Patriots and Broncos met, one team's star tight end stole the show in the second half, while the other team's star tight end could only sit and watch, sidelined by an injury; those two tight ends swapped roles for this week's AFC Championship Game in Denver.
Rob Gronkowski, Tom Brady's favourite and most reliable target in the pass game, will be sidelined from this Sunday's game, much to the relief of Denver's linebackers and safeties. Gronkowski is a huge target, with outstanding athleticism for someone his size, making it hard for anyone to cover him. The star tight end, better known as "Gronk", ripped the Broncos' defense for 90 yards and a TD on 7 receptions in their Week 12 matchup. Gronkowski was a force in the second half comeback for New England, making five catches for 81 yards and a TD in the second half. Tom Brady has sorely missed Gronkowski when he hasn't been in the lineup this season, and greatly benefited from having Gronk at his disposal; in seven games with Gronkowski in the lineup this season, Brady averaged 275.63 passing yards per game and a 64.08 completion percentage, in ten games without his big target, Brady averaged just 212.36 yards per game with a 57.18 completion percentage. Evidently Gronkowski is a game-changer at tight end; his inability to play this week clearly handicaps the Patriots pass game and makes it easier on the Broncos in coverage.
On the opposite side of the ball, Peyton Manning will have one of his favourite targets in the lineup this week as Julius Thomas will be ready to play after missing the last meeting between these two teams. Just as Rob Gronkowski is vital to the Patriots' pass attack, Julius Thomas has established himself as a vital piece of the Broncos' pass offense this season. Thomas was fourth on the team in receptions (65) and second in touchdown receptions (12) this season; the former college basketball player, who has since been converted to an excellent receiver, came up big many times this season, making 46.7% of his catches to convert first downs. Peyton Manning has been extremely efficient when targeting Orange Julius, completing 72.2% of his passes when throwing to Thomas, who averages 12.1 yards per catch. Having Thomas in the lineup for this rematch adds another dynamic to the offense that simply wasn't present in Week 12; Julius Thomas is a player who Manning can rely on to make a big play when needed, as was apparent on a certain crucial 3rd-and-17 play nearing the end of the Chargers game last week. Julius Thomas may just be the difference between the final score of Week 12's game and the final score of this AFC Championship Game.
In conclusion, it appears as though the changes that both teams have undergone since their Week 12 thriller give a slight advantage to the Broncos in this rematch. While the Broncos will be without a couple key pieces on defense, the Patriots will also be handicapped with a similar situation. On one hand, the Broncos' offense is firing on all cylinders, with both the pass and run working equally and all their weapons healthy; on the other hand, the Patriots are relying heavily on the run, while their passing game has been significantly less effective without Rob Gronkowski in the lineup. Regardless of these significant changes for both teams, we'll no doubt be treated to one heck of a game tomorrow afternoon in Denver.
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