Today, the Kansas City Chiefs will head to Indianapolis to take on the Colts in what has the potential to be the most evenly matched and exciting game of the Wild Card Playoffs. Despite having the exact same record entering Saturday's game, the Chiefs and Colts earned those win-loss records in nearly polar opposite fashion. The Chiefs manufactured one of the most impressive franchise turnarounds in history, reaching the playoffs at 11-5 after winning just two games the previous season; however, after starting the season 9-0, the Chiefs were just 2-5 in their final seven games. The Colts, meanwhile, were consistent all season, posting a 6-2 first-half record and a 5-3 record over their last eight games. What should be concerning for Kansas City's fans is that the Chiefs were a combined 1-5 against playoff opponents in 2013, including a regular season loss at the hands of Indy in KC. Meanwhile, the Colts posted a 4-2 record against 2013 playoff teams, including wins against Super Bowl favourites, Denver and Seattle, as well as their convincing 23-7 road win in Kansas City. On paper, the Chiefs appear to be in tough against a superior opponent; there are three keys to the game that Kansas City must capitalize on, in order to right their record against winning opponents, and advance to the Divisional Playoff round.
Chiefs' Keys to the Game
1. Create turnovers: One of the keys for the Chiefs in this game will be the ability to create turnovers on defense; in games where they've created one or fewer turnovers, the Chiefs are 2-4, while holding a 9-1 record when they cause two or more turnovers. If this game resembles the two teams' earlier matchup, where the Colts didn't give the ball away once, it could spell trouble for a KC team that's been reliant on takeaways to win. Throughout the course of the season, Indianapolis has turned the ball over multiple times in just two games, resulting in a +12 turnover differential. In order to win this game, the Chiefs will be reliant on Tamba Hali and Justin Houston, who are both hopefully returning from injury, to put pressure on Andrew Luck and force him to make poor choices in the passing game. Hali and Houston combined for 20 sacks in the first nine games of the season, and just 2 in the remaining seven games.
2. Pick on Indy's weak run defense: Indianapolis has had a hard time stopping opponents' rushing attacks all season, giving up more than 100 yards on the ground in every game except two (both vs. JAX) and allowed over 140 yards on the ground in eight of their games. In order to win, the Chiefs must exploit this weakness, and are in a good position to do so, with one of the most electric backs in the league, Jamaal Charles, on their side. The Chiefs' successful turnaround this season has been in large part due to Charles, and his history against the Colts reveals a tendency for big games. Despite having lost all three career games vs. Indianapolis, Charles averages 139.7 rushing yards per game vs. the Colts, his highest rushing average against any team he's faced more than once. The Chiefs must engage their star back as much as possible and allow him to exploit the weak Colts run defense.
3. Contain the Colts rushing attack: On the other side of the ball, it is essential that the Chiefs are able to prevent the Colts from establishing the run. In their 11 wins this season, the Colts averaged 125 rush yards; in their five losses, Indy managed to run the ball for just 73.6 yards on average. Interestingly enough, the Colts' success was not dependent upon their passing attack, which averaged 274.6 ypg in wins, and 276.2 ypg in losses. In their previous meeting, the Colts were able to establish the run, rushing for 135 yards in that win. The Chiefs defense, which has been bi-polar against the run this season, allowing over 250 rushing yards twice and less than 100 rushing yards six times, must buckle down in this Wild Card game and shut down Indy's running game.
Taking all three of these keys into account, it is apparent that the Chiefs' success in this week's Wild Card matchup depends upon whether or not they are able to tighten up their defense, pound the ball on the ground, and re-establish the smashmouth game of football that earned them the 9-0 record to start the season. If the KC can re-establish those aspects of their game that made them tough to play against early in the season, while exploiting the weaknesses in Indianapolis' game, they can book their ticket to the Divisional Round. With a win, Kansas City can silence their critics who suggest they don't have what it takes to beat top-caliber teams in the NFL ; with a loss players, coaches, and fans alike will be left to wonder whether those critics are speaking the truth.
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