Peyton Manning Vs. Elite Cornerbacks

As the Denver Broncos and Seattle Seahawks prepare to play each other in less than a week, one of the most obvious story-lines is, and has been, that of the best offense in the NFL against the best defense in the NFL. More specifically, people have been analyzing the matchup between the league's number one quarterback, facing off against the number one cornerback in the NFL. Yes, Richard Sherman is the best cornerback in the league, and I don't have a single problem giving him that title. After Sherman's outburst on national television following his team's NFC Championship Game win, much was said about the third year defensive back, including questions about whether or not he actually is the best cornerback in the league. There are some mighty-fine, talented corners in the league, who are very good at what they do, but at this very moment in time, Richard Sherman is the best cover-corner in the entire league, hands down. A less questioned point of view is the belief that Peyton Manning is the best quarterback in the NFL; in fact, I think that statement would be seen by most as more fact than opinion at this point. Manning seemed to shatter records every time he stepped on the field this season, and I think that his title as the number one QB in the league is quite secure.

Before I get into the actual matchup, I'd like to highlight just how good both of these players have been at their respective positions. 

Peyton Manning has been an exceptional quarterback ever since he entered the NFL in 1998, and he has long been in the talk as one of the greatest QBs of all time, but this season has no doubt been his most incredible season to date. The 36 year old quarterback sits second in all-time passing completions, passing attempts, passing yards, passing touchdowns, and passer rating; in addition to this, Manning is now a thirteen time Pro-Bowler and a seven-time first-team All-Pro selection, following the 2013 season. As if that wasn't enough on his resume, Manning set records this season for most passing touchdowns in a single season (55), most passing yards in a single season (5477), and led the Denver Broncos to set the record for the most points in a single season, with 606. 

While Peyton Manning is an established household football name, Richard Sherman is sure on his way there. Sherman has been nothing short of fantastic in his first three years in the NFL, amassing 20 INTs, 4 forced fumbles, and 139 tackles over those three years; Sherman has also already been selected as a first-team All-Pro in two of his first three seasons. To put these numbers in perspective, I took a look at two of the best corners to play in the NFL, both of whom have played fairly recently, Deion Sanders and Champ Bailey (currently active). Throughout the first three seasons of his storied career, Deion Sanders averaged 4.7 interceptions per season (14 total), 46 tackles per season (138 total), while amassing 4 forced fumbles and 3 interception TDs. Champ Bailey, who will be on the opposite sideline of Sherman come Sunday, averaged 4.3 INTs per season (13 total), 54 tackles per season (162 total), and put up 1 forced fumble and 1 TD in his first three seasons. Now, those are some big-time numbers, yet Sherman has been on-par with most of the numbers, and shattered the interception rates of both of these star players; Sherman has averaged 6.7 interceptions per season (20 total), 46.3 tackles per season (139 total), along with 4 forced fumbles and 3 touchdowns. These are the numbers of a world-class athlete, who cannot be taken lightly.

Now, heading into this game, neither player has matched up against each other in their careers, which means we don't have much to work with as far as analyzing their head-to-head play. However, it is possible to look at how Peyton has played against some of the NFL's best cover cornerbacks. Doing the same with Sherman is tough, due to the fact that the only relatively comparable pocket passers he has matched up against this season are Drew Brees, and maybe Matt Ryan; therefore, I'm going to stick with Peyton vs. cover corners and avoid the Sherman vs. pocket passers comparison. While these comparisons can give us a rough idea of how Sherman and Manning will stack up against each other, it is exactly that, a rough idea, due to the fact that these two players are so far ahead of their competition in most areas. Finding players who have stacked up comparably in all categories is quite tough.

Luckily, the Broncos' schedule this past season has allowed Manning to come into contact with some pretty solid coverage players, which makes his records that much more impressive. Some of the big names that Manning has come across are Alterraun Verner (TEN), Logan Ryan (NE), Sean Smith (KC), Alan Ball (JAX), and Vontae Davis (IND). Manning also played Aqib Talib twice in the 2013 season, but I've left his numbers out, due to the fact that Ryan and Talib both play on the Patriots; for the same reason, I left Brandon Flowers of the Chiefs out of the discussion. Here is how Peyton stacked up against these top-tier corners in the 2013 season:

	Alterraun Verner (TEN)		Logan Ryan (NE)		Sean Smith (KC)		Alan Ball (JAX)		Vontae Davis (IND)
	Season Totals (Manning removed)	Vs. Manning	Season Totals (Manning removed)	Vs. Manning	Season Totals (Manning removed)	Vs. Manning	Season Totals (Manning removed)	Vs. Manning	Season Totals (Manning removed)	Vs. Manning
Cover Snaps/ Rec.	17.3	8.9	12.8	8.9	13.9	16.6	13.6	14.0	11.6	18
Cover Snaps/Target	8.2	5.6	7.0	5.5	7.1	7.6	7.5	7.0	6.5	6.8
% Caught	47.1%	63.6%	55.9%	51.4%	51.1%	45.0%	54.8%	50.0%	55.6%	37.5%
Yds./Game	29.9	110	26.6	51.5	49.3	32	39.2	20	37.9	12
TDs	1	1	3	0	4	1	2	0	8	0
INTs	5	0	5	1	2	0	2	0	1	0

From the table, it is apparent that Manning has been up and down in his performance against these top-tier cover corners this season. Peyton picked Verner apart in his matchup against the Titans, absolutely crushing Verner's season average numbers. Manning was fairly on par with Sean Smith, Logan Ryan, and Alan Ball (although Ball seriously limited Manning's yardage against him). Finally, against Vontae Davis of the Colts, Manning struggled, completing just 37.5% of his passes at Davis for only 12 passing yards. Minus the Verner numbers, Peyton appears to be pretty average against the best coverage cornerbacks that the NFL has to offer, so where did his otherworldly success come from this season? It had to come from somewhere, didn't it? Well yes, it did. The way in which Manning managed to put up such incredible numbers was not in his ability to break down the best coverage players he faced, but picking on weaker ones when he needed to. Since the start of his career, Manning has not had a rocket for an arm, or the athleticism to out-run defenses; rather, he has instead excelled due to his ability to break the game down into a complicated chess-like game, where every player on the field are the pieces, and Manning the master. So, instead of challenging some of the best athletes in the game, Manning picks on a far less-talented teammate of that all-star player, and goes to work on them.

	Jason McCourty (TEN) (1 game)		Alfonzo Dennard (NE) (ONLY CC GAME)		Marcus Cooper (KC) (2 games)		Will Blackmon (JAX) (1 game)		Darius Butler (IND) (1 game)
	Season Totals (Manning removed)	Vs. Manning	Season Totals (Manning removed)	Vs. Manning	Season Totals (Manning removed)	Vs. Manning	Season Totals (Manning removed)	Vs. Manning	Season Totals (Manning removed)	Vs. Manning
Cover Snaps/ Rec.	10.1	10.3	13.1	6.0	11.5	5.9	10.6	8.6	9.3	8.0
Cover Snaps/Target	6.2	6.2	6.4	4.2	4.3	3.2	6.6	8.6	5.9	4.8
% Caught	61.2%	60.0%	50.0%	70.0%	50.7%	54.2%	62.7%	100%	63.1%	60%
Yds./Game	43.6	83	45.5	100	46.1	154	34.7	83	45.4	117
TDs	1	1	3	1	3	2	5	0	3	1
INTs	0	0	3	0	2	1	1	0	4	0

Vs. Tennessee (Alterraun Verner and Jason McCourty): The game against the Titans is a bit of an outlier in the pattern, due to the fact that Manning went right after Verner, burning him for 110 yards and 1 TD, with a 63.6% completion percentage. However, Manning did sort of pick on another corner, Jason McCourty in that mid-season meeting. Manning threw at McCourty just as often as most quarterbacks did all season, eerily similar actually, but the passes he connected on were on point for 83 yards and a touchdown. 

Vs. New England (Logan Ryan and Alfonzo Dennard): Alfonzo Dennard only played six snaps in the Broncos' first meeting against the Pats in the regular season, but was on field for all cover snaps in the Conference Championship game last week. In two games against the Pats, Manning didn't manage much against Logan Ryan, and after one unsuccessful game against the New England secondary he went right after the weak link in the second matchup. It seemed like Manning could pass at will on Dennard in the Conference Championship, ripping him for 100 yards and a touchdown, all while completing 70% of his passes on the day. Dennard had managed to put up pretty solid numbers all season against other quarterbacks, allowing them to complete just 50% of passes for less than 50 yards per game, allowing a reception every 13.1 cover snaps. However, Manning must have noticed something on film or in-game against Dennard, as he went to work shattering those numbers, including completing a pass against the young corner on every 6.0 cover snaps. 

Vs. Kansas City (Sean Smith and Marcus Cooper): Marcus Cooper's rookie season was rather impressive, if you don't count the Manning weeks against him. Cooper shone for the Chiefs throughout 2013, allowing one reception for every 11.5 cover snaps, a number that would have ranked him 23rd in the entire NFL in that category; however, due to the two games that he played against Peyton Manning, where Manning lit him up for a reception on every 5.9 cover snaps, Cooper ended the 2013 season ranked 63rd in the league in cover snaps/reception with a final number of 9.1 cover snaps/reception; call that the Manning effect. In two games against the Chiefs, Peyton was less-than-stellar against big, physical corner Sean Smith, but instead of targeting Smith over and over again, Manning adjusted and focused all of his energy on exploiting Cooper, the rookie. In those two games, Manning went yard on Cooper, throwing for 154 yards per game, 2 TDs and 1 INT, with a 54.2% completion percentage, all while throwing at Cooper (3.2 cover snaps/target) twice as often as Smith (7.6 cover snaps/target).

Vs. Jacksonville (Alan Ball and Will Blackmon): The Broncos' game against the Jacksonville Jaguars, was arguably one of their poorest showings of the season, even though they won by two scores. Jacksonville hung with the Broncos for much longer than they should have, and their defense really stepped up. Alan Ball was a big part of the strong defense that day, as well as one of the few bright spots on the Jaguars the whole 2013 season. Ball was Top 10 in the NFL in cover snaps/reception, and was Top 25 in opposing quarterback ratings throughout the season. Against Denver his play was no different, allowing only 20 yards through the air and a 50% completion percentage when receivers he was lined up against were targeted. Instead of attacking Ball, Manning went at Will Blackmon, throwing for 83 yards and completing every single pass that he threw at receivers being covered by Blackmon. 

Vs. Indianapolis (Vontae Davis and Darius Butler): Vontae Davis was the Indianapolis Colts number one cover man all season, including his best game of the season in Manning's return to Indy. In coverage this season, Davis allowed one catch per 11.6 targets, despite being targeted once every 6.5 cover snaps. Davis allowed only 55.6% of passes thrown his way to be completed, and gave up just 37.9 yards per game through the air. Against the Broncos, Davis was impenetrable, allowing just 37.5% of the passes thrown his way to be completed, while giving up just 12 yards. Manning, who threw poorly against Davis did not fail to exploit one defender in the game against the Colts; Peyton completed 60% of his passes against Darius Butler, for 117 yards and 1 touchdown. 

In all of these instances, Peyton Manning came up against a strong cover cornerback, and rather than continuously targeting receivers who were covered by these strong players, Manning found a weak link in the defense and exploited it. Whether it was Marcus Cooper of the Chiefs, Alfonzo Dennard of the Pats, or Darius Butler of the Colts, Manning found his target and struck. If Manning decides upon the same strategy against the Seahawks, Jeremy Lane or Walter Thurmond would be the likely targets for exploitation. While Thurmond and Lane have had solid seasons, they have not been nearly as intimidating as Richard Sherman or Byron Maxwell. Quarterback ratings against Thurmond and Lane have been a combined 73.6, while quarterbacks throwing against Sherman and Maxwell have averaged a QBR of 47.5. Lane and Thurmond. While Manning would clearly prefer to throw at Lane or Thurmond, he may not get the opportunities to throw to them, considering the fact that they combined for just 17 cover snaps last weekend against San Francisco.

In contrast to this, each of the players that Manning took advantage of in the above table averaged 35 coverage snaps in those games. Instead, Manning may be forced to throw against Sherman, as he did against Alterraun Verner in the game against the Titans. Luckily, the Seahawks and Titans shared six opponents, for a total of nine games in the 2013 season, which allows a comparison to be made between Verner and Sherman, two of the top five cover cornerbacks in the league.

Team Vs.	Richard Sherman	Alterraun Verner
Houston	3/5, 60%, 44 yds, 49.2 QBR, 1 INT	7/14, 50%, 55 yds/game, 60.8 QBR, 1 INT, 2 PD
Indianapolis	3/5, 60%, 94 yds, 143.8 QBR, 1 TD	4/8, 50%, 29 yds/game, 80.2 QBR, 2 PD
San Francisco	4/9, 44%, 29 yds/game, 54.5 QBR, 1 INT	1/1, 100%, 25 yds, 118.8 QBR
Jacksonville	2/5, 40%, 16 yds, 48.8 QBR	5/7, 71%, 13 yds/game,  75.9 QBR, 1 TD, 1 INT
Arizona	5/8, 63%, 24 yds/game, 50 QBR, 2 INT, 2 PD	3/6, 50%, 43 yds, 73.6 QBR, 2 PD
St. Louis	3/7, 43%, 24 yds/game, 47.9 QBR, 1 INT	3/6, 50%, 57 yds, 83.3 QBR
Totals	20/39, 51.3%, 34 yds/game, 61.9 QBR, 5 INT, 1 TD, 2 PD	23/42, 54.8%, 35.3 yds/game, 78.8 QBR, 2 INT, 1 TD, 6 PD

As can be seen in the table, Sherman was not drastically better than Verner against opponents that they shared; in fact, Verner was much better in two games against Andrew Luck and the Colts' offense than Sherman was in his game against Indy. Verner was also only targeted by Colin Kaepernick once in the Titans game against the Niners, which skews the data slightly in favour of Sherman. Yardage numbers between the two corners was nearly identical, as was completion percentage, although throwing in Sherman's direction resulted in double the interceptions. Verner defended 8 passes thrown in his direction, 25% of which resulted in interceptions; meanwhile, Sherman defended 7 passes towards him, with 71% of those resulting in interceptions. In other words, if you're going to miss throwing at Sherman, make sure you really miss, don't let him get a hand on it. In the below table, I've outlined the percentage of passes that were completed, intercepted, deflected, caught for touchdowns, and fell incomplete in those games where the two corners shared opponents. Incomplete passes could have been overthrows or underthrows that were never touched, passes that were defended by other members of the defender's team, or passes that were dropped by the receiver.

	Richard Sherman	Vs. Manning	Alterraun Verner	Vs. Manning
Passes Completed	51.3	?	54.8	63.6
Passes Intercepted	12.8	?	4.8	0.0
Passes Deflected	5.1	?	14.3	9.0
Passes Caught For Touchdowns	2.6	?	2.4	9.0
Incomplete Passes	28.2	?	23.7	18.4

Clearly, Peyton Manning would prefer to pick a less capable corner in the upcoming matchup against the Seahawks, rather than throw at Sherman, but as I pointed out earlier he will have no choice but to throw towards Sherman at some point during the game. Although that sounds daunting, it is definitely not the worst thing in the world, considering what Manning was able to do against a similar cover corner, Alterraun Verner. Regardless of whether Manning throws at him often or not at all, watching Sherman line up against Demaryius Thomas and the rest of the Broncos' receiving corps is going to be one exciting match-up, one that will make this Super Bowl a whole lot of fun to watch.