2014 NFL Draft Scouting Report: Derek Carr (QB: Fresno State)

We're just under five months away from the 2014 NFL Draft, which will be held on May 8th of this year, but since the majority of NFL teams are officially ruled out of contention for the Super Bowl, there are already multitudes of people looking forward to the day they hope their team can find that piece to put them in contention for the championship in years to come. It seems that there can be no level of analysis that is too overkill in regards to this event, as analysts and fans alike have already begun projecting who will take which player. While it is possible to at least come up with a list of players that each team should be interested in, based on their needs, it is nearly impossible to accurately predict the exact manner in which the draft plays out; instead, I think it is more valuable to take an in-depth look at each prospect available and identify their skills and how those will translate to the NFL. Over the next few weeks, I'm going to be taking a look at game-tape of some of the big name players, as well as some lesser-known prospects, and providing my take on what they could bring to an NFL franchise who is lucky, or unlucky enough to draft them.

It's never been more important than now to have a top-notch quarterback in order to be successful in the NFL; in fact, in the AFC, where four of the most quarterback-needy teams in the upcoming draft reside, the top seven quarterback ratings belong to the top seven teams in the conference. The draft class of 2014 looks as though it might be the deepest at quarterback in a few years, and most certainly more talented throughout than the class of 2013. Five teams head into this draft in dire need of a franchise quarterback to build around, including Cleveland, Houston, Jacksonville, Oakland, Minnesota. Other teams that may also be in the market for a quarterback at some point during, or closely following the draft are the Titans, Jets, and Cardinals.  Each Thursday, throughout the weeks leading up to the draft, I'll be posting a different quarterback who I either think is fit for a job in the NFL, a hidden gem that could be drafted late in the draft, or an overrated prospect who does not deserve his high regards.

Thursday, January 16, 2014- Derek Carr:

Background: Derek Carr is a 6'3", 205 lb quarterback from Bakersfield, California, born on March 28, 1991 (age 22). Derek, the younger brother of former Houston Texans and New York Giants quarterback, David Carr, is a Senior from Fresno State and has spent three years as the Bulldogs' starting QB.

Stats (per ProFootballReference): 

	Passing
Year	School	Conf	Class	Pos	G	Cmp	Att	Pct	Yds	Y/A	AY/A	TD	Int	Rate
*2009	Fresno State	WAC		QB	5	10	14	71.4	112	8.0	8.0	0	0	138.6
2011	Fresno State	WAC		QB	13	279	446	62.6	3544	7.9	8.2	26	9	144.5
*2012	Fresno State	MWC		QB	13	344	511	67.3	4104	8.0	8.9	37	7	155.9
*2013	Fresno State	MWC	SR	QB	13	454	659	68.9	5083	7.7	8.7	50	8	156.3
Career	Fresno State					1087	1630	66.7	12843	7.9	8.6	113	24	152.8

Awards/Records: 

• Carr finished the 2013 college football season 8th in voting for the Heisman Award for most outstanding player in the nation. 
• 2012 and 2013 Mountain West Conference Offensive Player of the Year. 
• 17th in the NCAA for all-time passing TDs; 14th in the NCAA for all-time passing TDs

Scouting Report: If there is one thing that is for sure about Derek Carr, it is that he can sling a football to pretty much any area of the field. Carr makes short and mid-range passes very accurately and can put the ball into tight windows with ease (A); unfortunately, the ability to throw into tight windows, and the confidence that comes with this skill, can lead to forcing the ball to receivers that are covered too tightly (B). The senior from Fresno State has the ability to get screen passes to the outside of the field quickly and efficiently, which was a big part of his game with the Bulldogs. The fade throw is likely Carr's most fine-tuned pass and he does not hesitate to use it with precision in the red zone (C). Carr does not run often (averaged 54 carries, 63.3 yards per season at Fresno State) and is not a quarterback who will beat you with his legs; however, he has shown the ability to extend plays to get off a throw, when needed, and has surprising quickness (fastest QB 40-yard-dash time in Fresno State history). Although he picks up blitzes early, Carr has a tendency to step back and throw off of his back foot when under pressure, rather than stepping up in the pocket to make the pass. In general, Carr is slightly skittish in the pocket, and will not set his feet to make throws when under duress. The majority of the passing plays within the Fresno State offense were designed for Carr to make one mid-length or deep read and then check down to a running back or receiver on a swing route or crossing route across the middle, if the deeper receiver was covered (D). Although these reads are fairly simple, the precision and smarts that Carr employed using them was very apparent, routinely making smart check-downs when the deeper option was unavailable. While this may have been a systematic aspect of Fresno State's offense, it certainly is unfortunate that Carr was not given the chance to show his ability (or maybe lack-there-of) to make multiple reads against a defense.  In conclusion, Carr's strong, accurate arm and ability to make many different throws would be a great fit for a West Coast offense. There may be some growing pains learning to make more complicated reads against NFL coverages, and Carr must work on developing a more confident pocket presence when under pressure, but most signs point to him being a safe selection in the upcoming draft. While the combine will obviously effect his final evaluation by scouts, I'd guess that Derek Carr will likely end up being a mid-to-late first round pick for the Vikings or Browns, depending on whether or not Cleveland chooses a quarterback with their first choice at 4th overall.

A)

B)

C)

D)

.

Broncos Lose Another Key Defensive Piece: Chris Harris Tears ACL

It was announced today by the Broncos organization that slot cornerback Chris Harris has suffered a season-ending knee injury. Harris suffered a torn ACL in the third quarter of the Broncos' 24-17 Divisional Round win over the San Diego Chargers, and will undergo surgery within the next couple weeks.

The third year corner, has emerged as one of the Broncos' most reliable defensive players after being signed as an undrafted free agent in 2011, and his loss should give any Broncos fan reason to worry. This season, Harris started 15 of 16 games, ranking 4th on the Broncos in tackles (65), tied for 1st in interceptions (3), and was 2nd on the team in passes defended (16). Losing Harris, arguably the best slot corner in the entire league, opens up a huge hole on defense as the Broncos prepare to host the New England Patriots in the AFC Championship Game. Harris' loss was felt as soon as he left the game on Sunday against the Chargers, as his replacement, Quentin Jammer gave up two touchdown passes in the second half. Prior to Harris' exit, the Broncos had practically shut out the Chargers' pass game, and their entire offense for that matter, posting a shutout until the young corner left the game. Once Harris went down with injuries, however, the Broncos game up scoring drives of 63, 80, and 48 yards, resulting in a 24-17 end result, after leading 17-0 at half.

With the Patriots due for a visit Sunday afternoon, the Broncos will need one of Champ Bailey, Kayvon Webster, Quentin Jammer, or all three to step up in Harris' absence. Champ Bailey seems like the best bet to fill in for Harris, as he has the most experience of the three defensive backs; however, Bailey has been primarily been playing in nickel situations since returning from an ankle injury that has hampered him all season. With Rob Gronkowski out for the Pats, the most dangerous weapons in the pass game are Danny Amendola, Shane Vereen, and Julian Edelman, who can move all over the field, but are prominently used in slot positions in the New England offense. Ideally, the Broncos could move Dominique Rodgers-Cromartie inside against the trio of  Amendola, Vereen, and Edelman, and move Bailey or Jammer to the outside of the field, where they have predominantly played in the past. Moving DRC inside would also provide the Broncos with another tough tackler inside to replace Harris in order to combat the recently-established tough Patriots rushing offense. Kayvon Webster, who is working his way back from a wrist injury that he suffered late in the season and has played snaps at slot corner this season, must also elevate his game in the absence of Harris. Webster's most impressive quality is his open field tackling, a quality that will be important for the Broncos to slow down the revitalized LeGarrette Blount, who scored four touchdowns against the Colts in the Divisional Round.

While this is a huge defensive loss, the solution lies most prominently with the Broncos' high-powered offense. The entire season, the Broncos have relied on out-scoring teams to win and this game will be no different; in order to move forward to the Super Bowl, the onus will fall on the offense to simply outscore their opponents. Luckily, the Patriots have also been plagued with defensive injuries throughout the season, which sets the stage for a potential offensive shootout next Sunday.

The Pleasant Surprises of Canada's Olympic Hockey Team

In case you didn't hear, and I'm sure you did if you turned your TV on at any point during or since the what-felt-like-24-hour presser, Canada announced their Men's Olympic hockey team yesterday. For months, media and fans have been projecting who would be on the team, who should be on the team, and who should not. There were some players that were considered locks to make the team by all; Sidney Crosby, Steven Stamkos, Duncan Keith, Shea Weber, all of whom made the final roster. Others were highly debated and mulled over, some of which made the team, while others' names were not called during the announcement in Toronto on Tuesday morning. After letting the dust (and my rage over some of the snubs) settle, I've taken a look at some of the bubble players who were pleasant surprises; guys that were not locks to make the team, but ended up having their names called.

First off, here's the final roster, in case you missed it:

Goalie: Roberto Luongo (VAN), Carey Price (MTL), Mike Smith (PHX)

Defense: Jay Bouwmeester (STL), Drew Doughty (LAK), Dan Hamhuis (VAN), Duncan Keith (CHI), Alex Pietrangelo (STL), PK Subban (MTL), Marc-Edouard Vlasic (SJ), Shea Weber (NAS)

Forwards: Jamie Benn (DAL), Patrice Bergeron (BOS), Jeff Carter (LAK), Sidney Crosby (PIT), Matt Duchene (COL), Ryan Getzlaf (ANA), Chris Kunitz (PIT), Patrick Marleau (SJ), Rick Nash (NYR), Corey Perry (ANA), Patrick Sharp (CHI), Steven Stamkos (TB), John Tavares (NYI), Jonathan Toews (CHI)

Pleasant Surprises: 

Matt Duchene 
Matt Duchene was one of the guys on the bubble that I was really rooting for to make Team Canada. Duchene is one of the smoothest, fastest skaters in the league, has slick hands, and can score with the best of the young generation of scorers. The young sniper has averaged 26.35 goals per 82 games and 0.76 points per game in his three-and-a-half year career and is on pace to record 32 goals and 76 points this season. Duchene has played for Team Canada in three World Championships on international ice, recording 12 points in 22 games. Personally, I'm excited to see Duchene on the big ice surface in Sochi, as he will have plenty of space to skate and create plays offensively. He isn't a guy you're going to rely on to kill penalties or in defensive situations, but Duchene is a player that can light up the scoreboard and provide an energy boost to this Canadian team.

Marc-Edouard Vlasic
When I heard Vlasic's name being mentioned in talks for Sochi by media members and bloggers prior to the announcement, I literally laughed and thought that there was no way that Vlasic could crack Canada's roster. And to be honest, even after the announcement this morning, I was not impressed with Vlasic's selection. However, because I haven't watched Vlasic a great deal because of where he plays, I thought I would dig a little deeper before I gave an uninformed opinion on the guy. After looking deeper into the San Jose defenseman's resume this season, I can say that my mind has at least partially been changed. Vlasic has racked up 721 minutes of ice-time this season (approximately 20/game) against the other teams' best players, night in, night out. Against a high quality of competition, 29.5% QOC (Top 25 defensemen in the league), Vlasic sports the number one Corsi relative rating (+7.2%) of any Canadian defenseman in the NHL (for any explanations of the meanings of advanced stats- check here). That Corsi relative rating looks even better on one of the best teams in the league, who also happens to have the third highest overall Corsi rating in the league. Upon further searching, I came across the fact that Vlasic actually has a slightly, and I mean very slightly, lower relative GF% than Brent Seabrook (who I thought should have made it); in other words, that means that both defensemen assist their teams' manufacturing of goals at about the same rate. Overall, it would appear that Vlasic helps his team more defensively and equally offensively as Seabrook, so I can kind of cut Yzerman some slack on this choice now.

Patrick Sharp
Patrick Sharp is another player who I personally thought should have made it, but was still surprised that he did, just because of all the reports that indicated that he wouldn't be on the team. Sharp is another speedy skater, who can play in any situation, whether it be even-strength, powerplay, or in penalty kill situations, and he can score when placed in any of those situations. Sharp is offensively and defensively sound and should be a player that Babcock doesn't hesitate to put out in any scenario. For the Chicago Blackhawks this season, Sharp leads the team, and is second in the league, in goals (25), second on the Blackhawks in points (46), and is third in faceoff percentage (55.4%). On one of the best possession teams in the league, Sharp ranks high in all advanced possession stats as well. Patrick Sharp is on pace for his own personal best season in both goals (45) and points (83), and his play this season has made it impossible to be passed over for the Canadian Olympic Team. If Sharp's 2011-12 World Championship, where he notched 8 points in 8 games, is any indication of his international play, he won't simply be a role player on this team; he has the potential to be a big difference-maker.

The Chiefs' Keys to Victory in Wild Card Game in Indy

Today, the Kansas City Chiefs will head to Indianapolis to take on the Colts in what has the potential to be the most evenly matched and exciting game of the Wild Card Playoffs. Despite having the exact same record entering Saturday's game, the Chiefs and Colts earned those win-loss records in nearly polar opposite fashion. The Chiefs manufactured one of the most impressive franchise turnarounds in history, reaching the playoffs at 11-5 after winning just two games the previous season; however, after starting the season 9-0, the Chiefs were just 2-5 in their final seven games. The Colts, meanwhile, were consistent all season, posting a 6-2 first-half record and a 5-3 record over their last eight games. What should be concerning for Kansas City's fans is that the Chiefs were a combined 1-5 against playoff opponents in 2013, including a regular season loss at the hands of Indy in KC. Meanwhile, the Colts posted a 4-2 record against 2013 playoff teams, including wins against Super Bowl favourites, Denver and Seattle, as well as their convincing 23-7 road win in Kansas City. On paper, the Chiefs appear to be in tough against a superior opponent; there are three keys to the game that Kansas City must capitalize on, in order to right their record against winning opponents, and advance to the Divisional Playoff round.

Chiefs' Keys to the Game

1. Create turnovers: One of the keys for the Chiefs in this game will be the ability to create turnovers on defense; in games where they've created one or fewer turnovers, the Chiefs are 2-4, while holding a 9-1 record when they cause two or more turnovers. If this game resembles the two teams' earlier matchup, where the Colts didn't give the ball away once, it could spell trouble for a KC team that's been reliant on takeaways to win. Throughout the course of the season, Indianapolis has turned the ball over multiple times in just two games, resulting in a +12 turnover differential. In order to win this game, the Chiefs will be reliant on Tamba Hali and Justin Houston, who are both hopefully returning from injury, to put pressure on Andrew Luck and force him to make poor choices in the passing game. Hali and Houston combined for 20 sacks in the first nine games of the season, and just 2 in the remaining seven games.

2. Pick on Indy's weak run defense: Indianapolis has had a hard time stopping opponents' rushing attacks all season, giving up more than 100 yards on the ground in every game except two (both vs. JAX) and allowed over 140 yards on the ground in eight of their games. In order to win, the Chiefs must exploit this weakness, and are in a good position to do so, with one of the most electric backs in the league, Jamaal Charles, on their side. The Chiefs' successful turnaround this season has been in large part due to Charles, and his history against the Colts reveals a tendency for big games. Despite having lost all three career games vs. Indianapolis, Charles averages 139.7 rushing yards per game vs. the Colts, his highest rushing average against any team he's faced more than once. The Chiefs must engage their star back as much as possible and allow him to exploit the weak Colts run defense.

3. Contain the Colts rushing attack: On the other side of the ball, it is essential that the Chiefs are able to prevent the Colts from establishing the run. In their 11 wins this season, the Colts averaged 125 rush yards; in their five losses, Indy managed to run the ball for just 73.6 yards on average. Interestingly enough, the Colts' success was not dependent upon their passing attack, which averaged 274.6 ypg in wins, and 276.2 ypg in losses. In their previous meeting, the Colts were able to establish the run, rushing for 135 yards in that win. The Chiefs defense, which has been bi-polar against the run this season, allowing over 250 rushing yards twice and less than 100 rushing yards six times, must buckle down in this Wild Card game and shut down Indy's running game.

Taking all three of these keys into account, it is apparent that the Chiefs' success in this week's Wild Card matchup depends upon whether or not they are able to tighten up their defense, pound the ball on the ground, and re-establish the smashmouth game of football that earned them the 9-0 record to start the season. If the KC can re-establish those aspects of their game that made them tough to play against early in the season, while exploiting the weaknesses in Indianapolis' game, they can book their ticket to the Divisional Round. With a win, Kansas City can silence their critics who suggest they don't have what it takes to beat top-caliber teams in the NFL ; with a loss players, coaches, and fans alike will be left to wonder whether those critics are speaking the truth.

Ball or Lacy? The Case For Montee Ball

If you’re a Broncos fan, you’re certainly familiar with the narrative, in the 2013 NFL Draft, the Denver Broncos selected Montee Ball with the 58^th overall selection of the draft, passing on Eddie Lacy, who was drafted by the Packers with pick 61. At first glance, the choice of Ball over Lacy looks like a no-brainer, when examining both backs’ college statistics. Eddie Lacy racked up 2740 total yards and 32 TDs in his three seasons in Alabama, while Ball doubled both of those totals, amassing 5738 total yards and 83 TDs in his four seasons spent as the starting back for the Wisconsin Badgers. Regardless of his collegiate statistical advantages, there have been questions about whether or not the Broncos made the right selection in Ball, questions that get louder and louder with the continued success of Lacy as the Packers lead back, while Ball splits time in the Broncos backfield with Knowshon Moreno. While the reasoning behind these questions is understandable, they are not fair to ask at this point in both young backs’ careers, and they are far from being answered; one thing is for sure though, Montee Ball has shown equal signs of a promising career in the NFL as Lacy has.

            The primary reason that these questions are unfair is simply the workload and the situations that both backs are in. Eddie Lacy earned the starting role out of training camp in Green Bay, and was immediately given a heavy workload in the opening weeks of the season; since the start of the 2013 season, when healthy, Lacy has seen less than fifteen touches just once. In addition to Lacy getting starter snaps from the beginning of the season, the Packers began to rely much more heavily on the rookie when star quarterback, Aaron Rodgers, went down with a broken collarbone in Week 8; since then, the Pack have given Lacy an average of 19 carries per game and he’s been a valuable safety net for the backup QBs, hauling in 19 of his 31 grabs over the past seven weeks. On the other side of the spectrum, Montee Ball started the 2013 season in a battle with two talented backs, Knowshon Moreno and Ronnie Hillman, who each had a full season of learning Peyton Manning’s complicated offense under their belts. Moreno won the starting job, and has managed to hold onto it due to strong quarterback protection and passionate rushing performances; however, Ball has managed to be an effective change-up back and has provided some solid pass protection as of late. In addition to that, Ball has shown some real explosiveness and an ability to run at the NFL level in the action that he has seen. Anyone who watched the Broncos’ Week 11 matchup against the Chiefs, where Montee put up 117 yards in just 13 carries can see the potential that Ball has as a runner. Clearly, the sheer quantity of opportunities that Lacy has been given gives him an advantage over Ball, prompting people to unfairly suggest that he is the better back; statements that become more absurd when looking at the numbers that the two backs have respectively managed.

           

	Rush Yards	Yards/Game	Yards/Attempt	Attempts/Game	TDs
Montee Ball	455	32.5	4.3	7.6	4
Eddie Lacy	1028	79.1	4.1	19.1	8

            Simply observing the two backs’ rushing statistics reveals an obviously heavier workload for Lacy, resulting in more yards, yards per game, attempts per game, and touchdowns; however, Ball has actually averaged more yards per attempt, suggesting that he would have similar numbers to Lacy if given more opportunities. The Broncos and Packers run similar offenses, the Broncos averaging 41.6 (58%) pass attempts and 29.6 (42%) rushing attempts per game, while the Packers average 35.1 (55%) pass attempts and 28.2 (45%) rushing attempts per game, which makes the two teams easy to compare. If Montee Ball were to maintain his 4.3 yards per attempt, as well as his 26.5 carries per touchdown, and was given the same percentage of the load of work in Denver that Eddie Lacy receives in Green Bay (62.7%), rather than playing second fiddle to Knowshon Moreno, the first-year back’s pro-rated stats alongside Eddie Lacy’s numbers would look as follows:

	Rush Yards	Yards/Game	Yards/Attempt	Attempts/Game	TDs
Montee Ball	1114	79.6	4.3	18.5	9
Eddie Lacy	1028	79.1	4.1	19.1	8

            With 62.7% of the Broncos’ rushing workload, Montee Ball would receive approximately 260 carries, which yield the numbers in the above table. With an equal workload to Lacy, Ball’s pro-rated statistics indicate that the rookie back out of Wisconsin would have equal, if not better numbers than Eddie Lacy. The Packers’ and Broncos’ offensive lines appear to be equally talented, with the 10th and 1lth ranked rush offensive lines respectively per Football Outsiders, meaning that this would not be a factor in production between the two. When you look at more advanced statistics regarding the two backs, like the one below, it reveals that Montee Ball have a higher first down rate on his carries, as well as a higher TD rate. Additionally, you see that Ball has had a slightly harder time holding onto the ball (which got him into the early season doghouse), but you also see that both backs have provided excellent quarterback protection with 0% sack rates.

	First Down Rate (Rush)	TD Rate	Fumble Rate	30+ Yd Rushes	Sack Rate
Montee Ball	26.7%	3.8%	1.9%	1	0%
Eddie Lacy	22.2%	3.2%	0.4%	3	0%

In addition to showing similar talent in rushing and pass protection, Montee Ball and Eddie Lacy have very similar receiving numbers out of the back field, with Ball averaging half the catches as Lacy, and exactly half the yards. Again, if the numbers that Ball has put up were pro-rated using the same workload as Lacy, it can be seen that the Badger alum would have eerily similar numbers to those of Lacy.

	Rec. Yards	Yards/Game	Yards/Catch	Catches/Game	TDs
Montee Ball	123	8.8	7.2	1.2	0
Eddie Lacy	236	18.2	7.6	2.4	0

            Eddie Lacy’s has 31 total receptions this year, giving him 9.70% of Green Bay’s passing completions. If Montee Ball were to have an equal portion of the Broncos’ pass completions, he would have approximately 31 as well (30.846), which would give him pro-rated receiving stats as follows (assuming he continued to average 7.2 yards per catch):

	Rec. Yards	Yards/Game	Yards/Catch	Catches/Game	TDs
Montee Ball	222	15.9	7.2	2.2	0
Eddie Lacy	236	18.2	7.6	2.4	0

            While clearly these numbers are built upon the assumption that Ball would maintain his average numbers across the same amount of work as Lacy, it appears as though the backs have shown similar promise for each of their teams in the play that they’ve been given. There is no question that both running backs are going to be premier players for their teams in the NFL in years to come, Lacy simply has been given the opportunity to do so early in his career. Meanwhile, Montee Ball is stuck behind Knowshon Moreno, who is having a huge breakout year for the Broncos, and is arguably the Broncos’ MVP behind Peyton Manning. It’s safe to say that even if the Broncos had drafted Lacy, he would probably be playing a secondary role to Moreno, who still would have had the advantage of knowing the pass-protection schemes and the intricate play calls of Peyton Manning from the start of the season. The Broncos will be in an interesting position in the offseason, when Moreno becomes an unrestricted free agent. Denver will have to choose between keeping Moreno at a much higher price, now that he has proven he can be a number one back, or cut ties with Moreno and hand the reins to Montee Ball, who appears to be the future franchise back. While I love the passion and play of Knowshon, if the price were too high to keep him around, I have no doubt that Montee Ball could come in and do exactly what everyone hoped he could when the Broncos drafted him, and assume the role of the every down back. While it is yet to be seen who the better running back will be, these players are both unquestionably talented players, and at this point, the only thing that separates them is a greater chance for Lacy to put his talents on display; don’t let the added reps fool you into thinking that Lacy would have been the better draft choice.