Peyton Manning Vs. Elite Cornerbacks

As the Denver Broncos and Seattle Seahawks prepare to play each other in less than a week, one of the most obvious story-lines is, and has been, that of the best offense in the NFL against the best defense in the NFL. More specifically, people have been analyzing the matchup between the league's number one quarterback, facing off against the number one cornerback in the NFL. Yes, Richard Sherman is the best cornerback in the league, and I don't have a single problem giving him that title. After Sherman's outburst on national television following his team's NFC Championship Game win, much was said about the third year defensive back, including questions about whether or not he actually is the best cornerback in the league. There are some mighty-fine, talented corners in the league, who are very good at what they do, but at this very moment in time, Richard Sherman is the best cover-corner in the entire league, hands down. A less questioned point of view is the belief that Peyton Manning is the best quarterback in the NFL; in fact, I think that statement would be seen by most as more fact than opinion at this point. Manning seemed to shatter records every time he stepped on the field this season, and I think that his title as the number one QB in the league is quite secure.

Before I get into the actual matchup, I'd like to highlight just how good both of these players have been at their respective positions. 

Peyton Manning has been an exceptional quarterback ever since he entered the NFL in 1998, and he has long been in the talk as one of the greatest QBs of all time, but this season has no doubt been his most incredible season to date. The 36 year old quarterback sits second in all-time passing completions, passing attempts, passing yards, passing touchdowns, and passer rating; in addition to this, Manning is now a thirteen time Pro-Bowler and a seven-time first-team All-Pro selection, following the 2013 season. As if that wasn't enough on his resume, Manning set records this season for most passing touchdowns in a single season (55), most passing yards in a single season (5477), and led the Denver Broncos to set the record for the most points in a single season, with 606. 

While Peyton Manning is an established household football name, Richard Sherman is sure on his way there. Sherman has been nothing short of fantastic in his first three years in the NFL, amassing 20 INTs, 4 forced fumbles, and 139 tackles over those three years; Sherman has also already been selected as a first-team All-Pro in two of his first three seasons. To put these numbers in perspective, I took a look at two of the best corners to play in the NFL, both of whom have played fairly recently, Deion Sanders and Champ Bailey (currently active). Throughout the first three seasons of his storied career, Deion Sanders averaged 4.7 interceptions per season (14 total), 46 tackles per season (138 total), while amassing 4 forced fumbles and 3 interception TDs. Champ Bailey, who will be on the opposite sideline of Sherman come Sunday, averaged 4.3 INTs per season (13 total), 54 tackles per season (162 total), and put up 1 forced fumble and 1 TD in his first three seasons. Now, those are some big-time numbers, yet Sherman has been on-par with most of the numbers, and shattered the interception rates of both of these star players; Sherman has averaged 6.7 interceptions per season (20 total), 46.3 tackles per season (139 total), along with 4 forced fumbles and 3 touchdowns. These are the numbers of a world-class athlete, who cannot be taken lightly.

Now, heading into this game, neither player has matched up against each other in their careers, which means we don't have much to work with as far as analyzing their head-to-head play. However, it is possible to look at how Peyton has played against some of the NFL's best cover cornerbacks. Doing the same with Sherman is tough, due to the fact that the only relatively comparable pocket passers he has matched up against this season are Drew Brees, and maybe Matt Ryan; therefore, I'm going to stick with Peyton vs. cover corners and avoid the Sherman vs. pocket passers comparison. While these comparisons can give us a rough idea of how Sherman and Manning will stack up against each other, it is exactly that, a rough idea, due to the fact that these two players are so far ahead of their competition in most areas. Finding players who have stacked up comparably in all categories is quite tough.

Luckily, the Broncos' schedule this past season has allowed Manning to come into contact with some pretty solid coverage players, which makes his records that much more impressive. Some of the big names that Manning has come across are Alterraun Verner (TEN), Logan Ryan (NE), Sean Smith (KC), Alan Ball (JAX), and Vontae Davis (IND). Manning also played Aqib Talib twice in the 2013 season, but I've left his numbers out, due to the fact that Ryan and Talib both play on the Patriots; for the same reason, I left Brandon Flowers of the Chiefs out of the discussion. Here is how Peyton stacked up against these top-tier corners in the 2013 season:

	Alterraun Verner (TEN)		Logan Ryan (NE)		Sean Smith (KC)		Alan Ball (JAX)		Vontae Davis (IND)
	Season Totals (Manning removed)	Vs. Manning	Season Totals (Manning removed)	Vs. Manning	Season Totals (Manning removed)	Vs. Manning	Season Totals (Manning removed)	Vs. Manning	Season Totals (Manning removed)	Vs. Manning
Cover Snaps/ Rec.	17.3	8.9	12.8	8.9	13.9	16.6	13.6	14.0	11.6	18
Cover Snaps/Target	8.2	5.6	7.0	5.5	7.1	7.6	7.5	7.0	6.5	6.8
% Caught	47.1%	63.6%	55.9%	51.4%	51.1%	45.0%	54.8%	50.0%	55.6%	37.5%
Yds./Game	29.9	110	26.6	51.5	49.3	32	39.2	20	37.9	12
TDs	1	1	3	0	4	1	2	0	8	0
INTs	5	0	5	1	2	0	2	0	1	0

From the table, it is apparent that Manning has been up and down in his performance against these top-tier cover corners this season. Peyton picked Verner apart in his matchup against the Titans, absolutely crushing Verner's season average numbers. Manning was fairly on par with Sean Smith, Logan Ryan, and Alan Ball (although Ball seriously limited Manning's yardage against him). Finally, against Vontae Davis of the Colts, Manning struggled, completing just 37.5% of his passes at Davis for only 12 passing yards. Minus the Verner numbers, Peyton appears to be pretty average against the best coverage cornerbacks that the NFL has to offer, so where did his otherworldly success come from this season? It had to come from somewhere, didn't it? Well yes, it did. The way in which Manning managed to put up such incredible numbers was not in his ability to break down the best coverage players he faced, but picking on weaker ones when he needed to. Since the start of his career, Manning has not had a rocket for an arm, or the athleticism to out-run defenses; rather, he has instead excelled due to his ability to break the game down into a complicated chess-like game, where every player on the field are the pieces, and Manning the master. So, instead of challenging some of the best athletes in the game, Manning picks on a far less-talented teammate of that all-star player, and goes to work on them.

	Jason McCourty (TEN) (1 game)		Alfonzo Dennard (NE) (ONLY CC GAME)		Marcus Cooper (KC) (2 games)		Will Blackmon (JAX) (1 game)		Darius Butler (IND) (1 game)
	Season Totals (Manning removed)	Vs. Manning	Season Totals (Manning removed)	Vs. Manning	Season Totals (Manning removed)	Vs. Manning	Season Totals (Manning removed)	Vs. Manning	Season Totals (Manning removed)	Vs. Manning
Cover Snaps/ Rec.	10.1	10.3	13.1	6.0	11.5	5.9	10.6	8.6	9.3	8.0
Cover Snaps/Target	6.2	6.2	6.4	4.2	4.3	3.2	6.6	8.6	5.9	4.8
% Caught	61.2%	60.0%	50.0%	70.0%	50.7%	54.2%	62.7%	100%	63.1%	60%
Yds./Game	43.6	83	45.5	100	46.1	154	34.7	83	45.4	117
TDs	1	1	3	1	3	2	5	0	3	1
INTs	0	0	3	0	2	1	1	0	4	0

Vs. Tennessee (Alterraun Verner and Jason McCourty): The game against the Titans is a bit of an outlier in the pattern, due to the fact that Manning went right after Verner, burning him for 110 yards and 1 TD, with a 63.6% completion percentage. However, Manning did sort of pick on another corner, Jason McCourty in that mid-season meeting. Manning threw at McCourty just as often as most quarterbacks did all season, eerily similar actually, but the passes he connected on were on point for 83 yards and a touchdown. 

Vs. New England (Logan Ryan and Alfonzo Dennard): Alfonzo Dennard only played six snaps in the Broncos' first meeting against the Pats in the regular season, but was on field for all cover snaps in the Conference Championship game last week. In two games against the Pats, Manning didn't manage much against Logan Ryan, and after one unsuccessful game against the New England secondary he went right after the weak link in the second matchup. It seemed like Manning could pass at will on Dennard in the Conference Championship, ripping him for 100 yards and a touchdown, all while completing 70% of his passes on the day. Dennard had managed to put up pretty solid numbers all season against other quarterbacks, allowing them to complete just 50% of passes for less than 50 yards per game, allowing a reception every 13.1 cover snaps. However, Manning must have noticed something on film or in-game against Dennard, as he went to work shattering those numbers, including completing a pass against the young corner on every 6.0 cover snaps. 

Vs. Kansas City (Sean Smith and Marcus Cooper): Marcus Cooper's rookie season was rather impressive, if you don't count the Manning weeks against him. Cooper shone for the Chiefs throughout 2013, allowing one reception for every 11.5 cover snaps, a number that would have ranked him 23rd in the entire NFL in that category; however, due to the two games that he played against Peyton Manning, where Manning lit him up for a reception on every 5.9 cover snaps, Cooper ended the 2013 season ranked 63rd in the league in cover snaps/reception with a final number of 9.1 cover snaps/reception; call that the Manning effect. In two games against the Chiefs, Peyton was less-than-stellar against big, physical corner Sean Smith, but instead of targeting Smith over and over again, Manning adjusted and focused all of his energy on exploiting Cooper, the rookie. In those two games, Manning went yard on Cooper, throwing for 154 yards per game, 2 TDs and 1 INT, with a 54.2% completion percentage, all while throwing at Cooper (3.2 cover snaps/target) twice as often as Smith (7.6 cover snaps/target).

Vs. Jacksonville (Alan Ball and Will Blackmon): The Broncos' game against the Jacksonville Jaguars, was arguably one of their poorest showings of the season, even though they won by two scores. Jacksonville hung with the Broncos for much longer than they should have, and their defense really stepped up. Alan Ball was a big part of the strong defense that day, as well as one of the few bright spots on the Jaguars the whole 2013 season. Ball was Top 10 in the NFL in cover snaps/reception, and was Top 25 in opposing quarterback ratings throughout the season. Against Denver his play was no different, allowing only 20 yards through the air and a 50% completion percentage when receivers he was lined up against were targeted. Instead of attacking Ball, Manning went at Will Blackmon, throwing for 83 yards and completing every single pass that he threw at receivers being covered by Blackmon. 

Vs. Indianapolis (Vontae Davis and Darius Butler): Vontae Davis was the Indianapolis Colts number one cover man all season, including his best game of the season in Manning's return to Indy. In coverage this season, Davis allowed one catch per 11.6 targets, despite being targeted once every 6.5 cover snaps. Davis allowed only 55.6% of passes thrown his way to be completed, and gave up just 37.9 yards per game through the air. Against the Broncos, Davis was impenetrable, allowing just 37.5% of the passes thrown his way to be completed, while giving up just 12 yards. Manning, who threw poorly against Davis did not fail to exploit one defender in the game against the Colts; Peyton completed 60% of his passes against Darius Butler, for 117 yards and 1 touchdown. 

In all of these instances, Peyton Manning came up against a strong cover cornerback, and rather than continuously targeting receivers who were covered by these strong players, Manning found a weak link in the defense and exploited it. Whether it was Marcus Cooper of the Chiefs, Alfonzo Dennard of the Pats, or Darius Butler of the Colts, Manning found his target and struck. If Manning decides upon the same strategy against the Seahawks, Jeremy Lane or Walter Thurmond would be the likely targets for exploitation. While Thurmond and Lane have had solid seasons, they have not been nearly as intimidating as Richard Sherman or Byron Maxwell. Quarterback ratings against Thurmond and Lane have been a combined 73.6, while quarterbacks throwing against Sherman and Maxwell have averaged a QBR of 47.5. Lane and Thurmond. While Manning would clearly prefer to throw at Lane or Thurmond, he may not get the opportunities to throw to them, considering the fact that they combined for just 17 cover snaps last weekend against San Francisco.

In contrast to this, each of the players that Manning took advantage of in the above table averaged 35 coverage snaps in those games. Instead, Manning may be forced to throw against Sherman, as he did against Alterraun Verner in the game against the Titans. Luckily, the Seahawks and Titans shared six opponents, for a total of nine games in the 2013 season, which allows a comparison to be made between Verner and Sherman, two of the top five cover cornerbacks in the league.

Team Vs.	Richard Sherman	Alterraun Verner
Houston	3/5, 60%, 44 yds, 49.2 QBR, 1 INT	7/14, 50%, 55 yds/game, 60.8 QBR, 1 INT, 2 PD
Indianapolis	3/5, 60%, 94 yds, 143.8 QBR, 1 TD	4/8, 50%, 29 yds/game, 80.2 QBR, 2 PD
San Francisco	4/9, 44%, 29 yds/game, 54.5 QBR, 1 INT	1/1, 100%, 25 yds, 118.8 QBR
Jacksonville	2/5, 40%, 16 yds, 48.8 QBR	5/7, 71%, 13 yds/game,  75.9 QBR, 1 TD, 1 INT
Arizona	5/8, 63%, 24 yds/game, 50 QBR, 2 INT, 2 PD	3/6, 50%, 43 yds, 73.6 QBR, 2 PD
St. Louis	3/7, 43%, 24 yds/game, 47.9 QBR, 1 INT	3/6, 50%, 57 yds, 83.3 QBR
Totals	20/39, 51.3%, 34 yds/game, 61.9 QBR, 5 INT, 1 TD, 2 PD	23/42, 54.8%, 35.3 yds/game, 78.8 QBR, 2 INT, 1 TD, 6 PD

As can be seen in the table, Sherman was not drastically better than Verner against opponents that they shared; in fact, Verner was much better in two games against Andrew Luck and the Colts' offense than Sherman was in his game against Indy. Verner was also only targeted by Colin Kaepernick once in the Titans game against the Niners, which skews the data slightly in favour of Sherman. Yardage numbers between the two corners was nearly identical, as was completion percentage, although throwing in Sherman's direction resulted in double the interceptions. Verner defended 8 passes thrown in his direction, 25% of which resulted in interceptions; meanwhile, Sherman defended 7 passes towards him, with 71% of those resulting in interceptions. In other words, if you're going to miss throwing at Sherman, make sure you really miss, don't let him get a hand on it. In the below table, I've outlined the percentage of passes that were completed, intercepted, deflected, caught for touchdowns, and fell incomplete in those games where the two corners shared opponents. Incomplete passes could have been overthrows or underthrows that were never touched, passes that were defended by other members of the defender's team, or passes that were dropped by the receiver.

	Richard Sherman	Vs. Manning	Alterraun Verner	Vs. Manning
Passes Completed	51.3	?	54.8	63.6
Passes Intercepted	12.8	?	4.8	0.0
Passes Deflected	5.1	?	14.3	9.0
Passes Caught For Touchdowns	2.6	?	2.4	9.0
Incomplete Passes	28.2	?	23.7	18.4

Clearly, Peyton Manning would prefer to pick a less capable corner in the upcoming matchup against the Seahawks, rather than throw at Sherman, but as I pointed out earlier he will have no choice but to throw towards Sherman at some point during the game. Although that sounds daunting, it is definitely not the worst thing in the world, considering what Manning was able to do against a similar cover corner, Alterraun Verner. Regardless of whether Manning throws at him often or not at all, watching Sherman line up against Demaryius Thomas and the rest of the Broncos' receiving corps is going to be one exciting match-up, one that will make this Super Bowl a whole lot of fun to watch.

Broncos vs. Patriots: What's Changed Since Week 12

The Denver Broncos and New England Patriots are preparing for their second, and drastically more important, meeting of the 2013 NFL season, this one for a chance to play in Super Bowl XLVII. The first time the two teams played each other this season was a wild one in Week 12 at Foxboro; the Broncos took a 24-0 lead into half, only to have the Pats storm back and tie it in regulation, and eventually win 34-31 in overtime. In that game, the Broncos were dealt their second loss of the season, while the Pats secured their eighth win of the season. Both teams followed up that cold night in Foxboro with four wins and one loss, the Broncos rounding out their season with a 13-3 record and the first seed in the AFC, while the Pats claimed the second seed in the conference with a 12-4 final record. Each team followed up their 4-1 end to the season with a bye during Wild Card weekend and a home-field win in the Divisional Round, ending the seasons of the Chargers and Colts. While both teams have followed similar paths to get to this AFC Championship Game in Denver, there have been a lot of changes for both Denver and New England since that Week 12 game, all of which will have an impact on Sunday's matchup.

1. Defensive Injuries
Both Broncos and Pats have been plagued by injuries since their Week 12 matchup, each losing some key members on the defensive side of the ball. The Broncos will head into the AFC Championship Game without star linebacker, Von Miller, and exceptional slot cornerback, Chris Harris, who both suffered season-ending ACL injuries in Week 16 and the Divisional playoffs respectively. Miller's injury ended what has been a disappointing season all-around for him in which he ended up playing in just 9 of the team's 17 games (so far). Harris, meanwhile, was having a second consecutive season in which he excelled, ranking fourth in tackles (65), tied for first in interceptions (3), and second on the Broncos in passes defended (16). While it is unseen how the Broncos will adjust without Harris in the lineup, their defense does not appear to have felt the loss of Von Miller in their pass rush. Nate Irving, Shaun Phillips, Robert Ayers, and Jeremy Mincey, the group charged with replacing Miller in the pass rush, have combined for 7.0 sacks in the three games since Von's injury. Harris' reps on defense will likely be split between Champ Bailey, Kayvon Webster, Quentin Jammer, and Tony Carter, although Harris believes it should be Carter. Whoever does step into Harris' role will be hard-pressed to play up to the standards of one of the league's best cover corners, as this injury most definitely will open up a hole in the secondary for Tom Brady to exploit. In addition to these two key players going down, the Broncos lost a big part of their interior defense, when Kevin Vickerson was placed on IR following the Week 12 game against the Pats. Malik Jackson and Sylvester Williams have excelled in Vickerson's stead, which has not only prevented the Broncos' run defense to regress, but has actually boosted their play.

On the other side of the field, New England enters Sunday's game third leading tackler, Brandon Spikes, who was placed on IR after Week 16. Additionally, Dont'a Hightower, the team's tackle leader in 2013 is questionable to play in Sunday's matchup with an ankle injury. Rookie linebacker, Jamie Collins, who provided a spark on the Pats' defense last week, making three tackles, along with an INT and a sack, will be heavily relied upon to have an equal impact on this game, with the Pats potentially missing two of their starting linebackers.

2. Offensive Tendencies
Since the last time these two teams met, one offense has changed drastically in the way that they move the ball, while the other offense has just kept chugging along like the finely-tuned machine that it is. The Patriots are the first of the two teams; since the Week 12 meeting between the two, their offense has slowly been molded into a prominent run team, as opposed to a pass-first offense. Up to and including the Broncos game, the Patriots' offense was averaging 245 passing yards and 125.9 rushing yards per game; following the Broncos game, they have averaged 262.83 passing yards and 152.3 rushing yards per game. Obviously these numbers suggest that the Patriots have improved in both areas of their offense, passing and running more effectively; however, the biggest change has taken place over the course of their final two regular season games and Divisional playoff game. In their last three games, the Pats are averaging an extremely low 152.3 passing yards per game, and a huge 214.3 rushing yards per game. Luckily, the Pats' new-found love for the run plays into the strengths of the Broncos defense as of late; over the three weeks that the Pats have averaged over 200 yards on the ground in each game, the Broncos have held opponents to just 72 yards rushing on average. While New England has averaged 5.16 yards per carry over those three weeks, and have broken off four 25+ yard runs, the Broncos defense has been equally stellar, allowing just 3.36 yards per carry and only one run of 15+ yards over that span. The team who is able to continue to dominate the battle in the trenches at the line of scrimmage will likely be the victor in this one.

While New England's offense has undergone big changes over the past seven weeks, the Broncos' offense has continued strong and never faltered along the way. When you look at Denver's offense, you see a perfect picture of consistency and balance; the Broncos averaged 330.6 passing yards and 121 rush yards per game up until Week 12, and then went on to finish the season with averages of 339.7 passing yards and 112.5 rushing yards per game. Over the last three weeks, the story is no different, with the Broncos climbing back up to 123.7 rushing yards per game on the backs of Knowshon Moreno and Montee Ball, while Peyton has remained a dominant force with 320.3 passing yards per game. The Broncos' balance and consistency on offense makes them unpredictable and dangerous from many angles, and as newly-signed Bronco and former Patriot DB Marquice Cole stated in an interview this week, "Peyton Manning has seen every defense. So there's nothing I can tell him that he doesn't already know." The Patriots' defense will have its hands full trying to defend the wide array of weapons that are at the disposal of one of the best quarterbacks to ever play the game.

3. Tight End Swap
The last time the Patriots and Broncos met, one team's star tight end stole the show in the second half, while the other team's star tight end could only sit and watch, sidelined by an injury; those two tight ends swapped roles for this week's AFC Championship Game in Denver.

Rob Gronkowski, Tom Brady's favourite and most reliable target in the pass game, will be sidelined from this Sunday's game, much to the relief of Denver's linebackers and safeties. Gronkowski is a huge target, with outstanding athleticism for someone his size, making it hard for anyone to cover him. The star tight end, better known as "Gronk", ripped the Broncos' defense for 90 yards and a TD on 7 receptions in their Week 12 matchup. Gronkowski was a force in the second half comeback for New England, making five catches for 81 yards and a TD in the second half. Tom Brady has sorely missed Gronkowski when he hasn't been in the lineup this season, and greatly benefited from having Gronk at his disposal; in seven games with Gronkowski in the lineup this season, Brady averaged 275.63 passing yards per game and a 64.08 completion percentage, in ten games without his big target, Brady averaged just 212.36 yards per game with a 57.18 completion percentage. Evidently Gronkowski is a game-changer at tight end; his inability to play this week clearly handicaps the Patriots pass game and makes it easier on the Broncos in coverage.

On the opposite side of the ball, Peyton Manning will have one of his favourite targets in the lineup this week as Julius Thomas will be ready to play after missing the last meeting between these two teams. Just as Rob Gronkowski is vital to the Patriots' pass attack, Julius Thomas has established himself as a vital piece of the Broncos' pass offense this season. Thomas was fourth on the team in receptions (65) and second in touchdown receptions (12) this season; the former college basketball player, who has since been converted to an excellent receiver, came up big many times this season, making 46.7% of his catches to convert first downs. Peyton Manning has been extremely efficient when targeting Orange Julius, completing 72.2% of his passes when throwing to Thomas, who averages 12.1 yards per catch. Having Thomas in the lineup for this rematch adds another dynamic to the offense that simply wasn't present in Week 12; Julius Thomas is a player who Manning can rely on to make a big play when needed, as was apparent on a certain crucial 3rd-and-17 play nearing the end of the Chargers game last week. Julius Thomas may just be the difference between the final score of Week 12's game and the final score of this AFC Championship Game.

In conclusion, it appears as though the changes that both teams have undergone since their Week 12 thriller give a slight advantage to the Broncos in this rematch. While the Broncos will be without a couple key pieces on defense, the Patriots will also be handicapped with a similar situation. On one hand, the Broncos' offense is firing on all cylinders, with both the pass and run working equally and all their weapons healthy; on the other hand, the Patriots are relying heavily on the run, while their passing game has been significantly less effective without Rob Gronkowski in the lineup. Regardless of these significant changes for both teams, we'll no doubt be treated to one heck of a game tomorrow afternoon in Denver.

2014 NFL Draft Scouting Report: Derek Carr (QB: Fresno State)

We're just under five months away from the 2014 NFL Draft, which will be held on May 8th of this year, but since the majority of NFL teams are officially ruled out of contention for the Super Bowl, there are already multitudes of people looking forward to the day they hope their team can find that piece to put them in contention for the championship in years to come. It seems that there can be no level of analysis that is too overkill in regards to this event, as analysts and fans alike have already begun projecting who will take which player. While it is possible to at least come up with a list of players that each team should be interested in, based on their needs, it is nearly impossible to accurately predict the exact manner in which the draft plays out; instead, I think it is more valuable to take an in-depth look at each prospect available and identify their skills and how those will translate to the NFL. Over the next few weeks, I'm going to be taking a look at game-tape of some of the big name players, as well as some lesser-known prospects, and providing my take on what they could bring to an NFL franchise who is lucky, or unlucky enough to draft them.

It's never been more important than now to have a top-notch quarterback in order to be successful in the NFL; in fact, in the AFC, where four of the most quarterback-needy teams in the upcoming draft reside, the top seven quarterback ratings belong to the top seven teams in the conference. The draft class of 2014 looks as though it might be the deepest at quarterback in a few years, and most certainly more talented throughout than the class of 2013. Five teams head into this draft in dire need of a franchise quarterback to build around, including Cleveland, Houston, Jacksonville, Oakland, Minnesota. Other teams that may also be in the market for a quarterback at some point during, or closely following the draft are the Titans, Jets, and Cardinals.  Each Thursday, throughout the weeks leading up to the draft, I'll be posting a different quarterback who I either think is fit for a job in the NFL, a hidden gem that could be drafted late in the draft, or an overrated prospect who does not deserve his high regards.

Thursday, January 16, 2014- Derek Carr:

Background: Derek Carr is a 6'3", 205 lb quarterback from Bakersfield, California, born on March 28, 1991 (age 22). Derek, the younger brother of former Houston Texans and New York Giants quarterback, David Carr, is a Senior from Fresno State and has spent three years as the Bulldogs' starting QB.

Stats (per ProFootballReference): 

	Passing
Year	School	Conf	Class	Pos	G	Cmp	Att	Pct	Yds	Y/A	AY/A	TD	Int	Rate
*2009	Fresno State	WAC		QB	5	10	14	71.4	112	8.0	8.0	0	0	138.6
2011	Fresno State	WAC		QB	13	279	446	62.6	3544	7.9	8.2	26	9	144.5
*2012	Fresno State	MWC		QB	13	344	511	67.3	4104	8.0	8.9	37	7	155.9
*2013	Fresno State	MWC	SR	QB	13	454	659	68.9	5083	7.7	8.7	50	8	156.3
Career	Fresno State					1087	1630	66.7	12843	7.9	8.6	113	24	152.8

Awards/Records: 

• Carr finished the 2013 college football season 8th in voting for the Heisman Award for most outstanding player in the nation. 
• 2012 and 2013 Mountain West Conference Offensive Player of the Year. 
• 17th in the NCAA for all-time passing TDs; 14th in the NCAA for all-time passing TDs

Scouting Report: If there is one thing that is for sure about Derek Carr, it is that he can sling a football to pretty much any area of the field. Carr makes short and mid-range passes very accurately and can put the ball into tight windows with ease (A); unfortunately, the ability to throw into tight windows, and the confidence that comes with this skill, can lead to forcing the ball to receivers that are covered too tightly (B). The senior from Fresno State has the ability to get screen passes to the outside of the field quickly and efficiently, which was a big part of his game with the Bulldogs. The fade throw is likely Carr's most fine-tuned pass and he does not hesitate to use it with precision in the red zone (C). Carr does not run often (averaged 54 carries, 63.3 yards per season at Fresno State) and is not a quarterback who will beat you with his legs; however, he has shown the ability to extend plays to get off a throw, when needed, and has surprising quickness (fastest QB 40-yard-dash time in Fresno State history). Although he picks up blitzes early, Carr has a tendency to step back and throw off of his back foot when under pressure, rather than stepping up in the pocket to make the pass. In general, Carr is slightly skittish in the pocket, and will not set his feet to make throws when under duress. The majority of the passing plays within the Fresno State offense were designed for Carr to make one mid-length or deep read and then check down to a running back or receiver on a swing route or crossing route across the middle, if the deeper receiver was covered (D). Although these reads are fairly simple, the precision and smarts that Carr employed using them was very apparent, routinely making smart check-downs when the deeper option was unavailable. While this may have been a systematic aspect of Fresno State's offense, it certainly is unfortunate that Carr was not given the chance to show his ability (or maybe lack-there-of) to make multiple reads against a defense.  In conclusion, Carr's strong, accurate arm and ability to make many different throws would be a great fit for a West Coast offense. There may be some growing pains learning to make more complicated reads against NFL coverages, and Carr must work on developing a more confident pocket presence when under pressure, but most signs point to him being a safe selection in the upcoming draft. While the combine will obviously effect his final evaluation by scouts, I'd guess that Derek Carr will likely end up being a mid-to-late first round pick for the Vikings or Browns, depending on whether or not Cleveland chooses a quarterback with their first choice at 4th overall.

A)

B)

C)

D)

.

Broncos Lose Another Key Defensive Piece: Chris Harris Tears ACL

It was announced today by the Broncos organization that slot cornerback Chris Harris has suffered a season-ending knee injury. Harris suffered a torn ACL in the third quarter of the Broncos' 24-17 Divisional Round win over the San Diego Chargers, and will undergo surgery within the next couple weeks.

The third year corner, has emerged as one of the Broncos' most reliable defensive players after being signed as an undrafted free agent in 2011, and his loss should give any Broncos fan reason to worry. This season, Harris started 15 of 16 games, ranking 4th on the Broncos in tackles (65), tied for 1st in interceptions (3), and was 2nd on the team in passes defended (16). Losing Harris, arguably the best slot corner in the entire league, opens up a huge hole on defense as the Broncos prepare to host the New England Patriots in the AFC Championship Game. Harris' loss was felt as soon as he left the game on Sunday against the Chargers, as his replacement, Quentin Jammer gave up two touchdown passes in the second half. Prior to Harris' exit, the Broncos had practically shut out the Chargers' pass game, and their entire offense for that matter, posting a shutout until the young corner left the game. Once Harris went down with injuries, however, the Broncos game up scoring drives of 63, 80, and 48 yards, resulting in a 24-17 end result, after leading 17-0 at half.

With the Patriots due for a visit Sunday afternoon, the Broncos will need one of Champ Bailey, Kayvon Webster, Quentin Jammer, or all three to step up in Harris' absence. Champ Bailey seems like the best bet to fill in for Harris, as he has the most experience of the three defensive backs; however, Bailey has been primarily been playing in nickel situations since returning from an ankle injury that has hampered him all season. With Rob Gronkowski out for the Pats, the most dangerous weapons in the pass game are Danny Amendola, Shane Vereen, and Julian Edelman, who can move all over the field, but are prominently used in slot positions in the New England offense. Ideally, the Broncos could move Dominique Rodgers-Cromartie inside against the trio of  Amendola, Vereen, and Edelman, and move Bailey or Jammer to the outside of the field, where they have predominantly played in the past. Moving DRC inside would also provide the Broncos with another tough tackler inside to replace Harris in order to combat the recently-established tough Patriots rushing offense. Kayvon Webster, who is working his way back from a wrist injury that he suffered late in the season and has played snaps at slot corner this season, must also elevate his game in the absence of Harris. Webster's most impressive quality is his open field tackling, a quality that will be important for the Broncos to slow down the revitalized LeGarrette Blount, who scored four touchdowns against the Colts in the Divisional Round.

While this is a huge defensive loss, the solution lies most prominently with the Broncos' high-powered offense. The entire season, the Broncos have relied on out-scoring teams to win and this game will be no different; in order to move forward to the Super Bowl, the onus will fall on the offense to simply outscore their opponents. Luckily, the Patriots have also been plagued with defensive injuries throughout the season, which sets the stage for a potential offensive shootout next Sunday.

The Pleasant Surprises of Canada's Olympic Hockey Team

In case you didn't hear, and I'm sure you did if you turned your TV on at any point during or since the what-felt-like-24-hour presser, Canada announced their Men's Olympic hockey team yesterday. For months, media and fans have been projecting who would be on the team, who should be on the team, and who should not. There were some players that were considered locks to make the team by all; Sidney Crosby, Steven Stamkos, Duncan Keith, Shea Weber, all of whom made the final roster. Others were highly debated and mulled over, some of which made the team, while others' names were not called during the announcement in Toronto on Tuesday morning. After letting the dust (and my rage over some of the snubs) settle, I've taken a look at some of the bubble players who were pleasant surprises; guys that were not locks to make the team, but ended up having their names called.

First off, here's the final roster, in case you missed it:

Goalie: Roberto Luongo (VAN), Carey Price (MTL), Mike Smith (PHX)

Defense: Jay Bouwmeester (STL), Drew Doughty (LAK), Dan Hamhuis (VAN), Duncan Keith (CHI), Alex Pietrangelo (STL), PK Subban (MTL), Marc-Edouard Vlasic (SJ), Shea Weber (NAS)

Forwards: Jamie Benn (DAL), Patrice Bergeron (BOS), Jeff Carter (LAK), Sidney Crosby (PIT), Matt Duchene (COL), Ryan Getzlaf (ANA), Chris Kunitz (PIT), Patrick Marleau (SJ), Rick Nash (NYR), Corey Perry (ANA), Patrick Sharp (CHI), Steven Stamkos (TB), John Tavares (NYI), Jonathan Toews (CHI)

Pleasant Surprises: 

Matt Duchene 
Matt Duchene was one of the guys on the bubble that I was really rooting for to make Team Canada. Duchene is one of the smoothest, fastest skaters in the league, has slick hands, and can score with the best of the young generation of scorers. The young sniper has averaged 26.35 goals per 82 games and 0.76 points per game in his three-and-a-half year career and is on pace to record 32 goals and 76 points this season. Duchene has played for Team Canada in three World Championships on international ice, recording 12 points in 22 games. Personally, I'm excited to see Duchene on the big ice surface in Sochi, as he will have plenty of space to skate and create plays offensively. He isn't a guy you're going to rely on to kill penalties or in defensive situations, but Duchene is a player that can light up the scoreboard and provide an energy boost to this Canadian team.

Marc-Edouard Vlasic
When I heard Vlasic's name being mentioned in talks for Sochi by media members and bloggers prior to the announcement, I literally laughed and thought that there was no way that Vlasic could crack Canada's roster. And to be honest, even after the announcement this morning, I was not impressed with Vlasic's selection. However, because I haven't watched Vlasic a great deal because of where he plays, I thought I would dig a little deeper before I gave an uninformed opinion on the guy. After looking deeper into the San Jose defenseman's resume this season, I can say that my mind has at least partially been changed. Vlasic has racked up 721 minutes of ice-time this season (approximately 20/game) against the other teams' best players, night in, night out. Against a high quality of competition, 29.5% QOC (Top 25 defensemen in the league), Vlasic sports the number one Corsi relative rating (+7.2%) of any Canadian defenseman in the NHL (for any explanations of the meanings of advanced stats- check here). That Corsi relative rating looks even better on one of the best teams in the league, who also happens to have the third highest overall Corsi rating in the league. Upon further searching, I came across the fact that Vlasic actually has a slightly, and I mean very slightly, lower relative GF% than Brent Seabrook (who I thought should have made it); in other words, that means that both defensemen assist their teams' manufacturing of goals at about the same rate. Overall, it would appear that Vlasic helps his team more defensively and equally offensively as Seabrook, so I can kind of cut Yzerman some slack on this choice now.

Patrick Sharp
Patrick Sharp is another player who I personally thought should have made it, but was still surprised that he did, just because of all the reports that indicated that he wouldn't be on the team. Sharp is another speedy skater, who can play in any situation, whether it be even-strength, powerplay, or in penalty kill situations, and he can score when placed in any of those situations. Sharp is offensively and defensively sound and should be a player that Babcock doesn't hesitate to put out in any scenario. For the Chicago Blackhawks this season, Sharp leads the team, and is second in the league, in goals (25), second on the Blackhawks in points (46), and is third in faceoff percentage (55.4%). On one of the best possession teams in the league, Sharp ranks high in all advanced possession stats as well. Patrick Sharp is on pace for his own personal best season in both goals (45) and points (83), and his play this season has made it impossible to be passed over for the Canadian Olympic Team. If Sharp's 2011-12 World Championship, where he notched 8 points in 8 games, is any indication of his international play, he won't simply be a role player on this team; he has the potential to be a big difference-maker.

The Chiefs' Keys to Victory in Wild Card Game in Indy

Today, the Kansas City Chiefs will head to Indianapolis to take on the Colts in what has the potential to be the most evenly matched and exciting game of the Wild Card Playoffs. Despite having the exact same record entering Saturday's game, the Chiefs and Colts earned those win-loss records in nearly polar opposite fashion. The Chiefs manufactured one of the most impressive franchise turnarounds in history, reaching the playoffs at 11-5 after winning just two games the previous season; however, after starting the season 9-0, the Chiefs were just 2-5 in their final seven games. The Colts, meanwhile, were consistent all season, posting a 6-2 first-half record and a 5-3 record over their last eight games. What should be concerning for Kansas City's fans is that the Chiefs were a combined 1-5 against playoff opponents in 2013, including a regular season loss at the hands of Indy in KC. Meanwhile, the Colts posted a 4-2 record against 2013 playoff teams, including wins against Super Bowl favourites, Denver and Seattle, as well as their convincing 23-7 road win in Kansas City. On paper, the Chiefs appear to be in tough against a superior opponent; there are three keys to the game that Kansas City must capitalize on, in order to right their record against winning opponents, and advance to the Divisional Playoff round.

Chiefs' Keys to the Game

1. Create turnovers: One of the keys for the Chiefs in this game will be the ability to create turnovers on defense; in games where they've created one or fewer turnovers, the Chiefs are 2-4, while holding a 9-1 record when they cause two or more turnovers. If this game resembles the two teams' earlier matchup, where the Colts didn't give the ball away once, it could spell trouble for a KC team that's been reliant on takeaways to win. Throughout the course of the season, Indianapolis has turned the ball over multiple times in just two games, resulting in a +12 turnover differential. In order to win this game, the Chiefs will be reliant on Tamba Hali and Justin Houston, who are both hopefully returning from injury, to put pressure on Andrew Luck and force him to make poor choices in the passing game. Hali and Houston combined for 20 sacks in the first nine games of the season, and just 2 in the remaining seven games.

2. Pick on Indy's weak run defense: Indianapolis has had a hard time stopping opponents' rushing attacks all season, giving up more than 100 yards on the ground in every game except two (both vs. JAX) and allowed over 140 yards on the ground in eight of their games. In order to win, the Chiefs must exploit this weakness, and are in a good position to do so, with one of the most electric backs in the league, Jamaal Charles, on their side. The Chiefs' successful turnaround this season has been in large part due to Charles, and his history against the Colts reveals a tendency for big games. Despite having lost all three career games vs. Indianapolis, Charles averages 139.7 rushing yards per game vs. the Colts, his highest rushing average against any team he's faced more than once. The Chiefs must engage their star back as much as possible and allow him to exploit the weak Colts run defense.

3. Contain the Colts rushing attack: On the other side of the ball, it is essential that the Chiefs are able to prevent the Colts from establishing the run. In their 11 wins this season, the Colts averaged 125 rush yards; in their five losses, Indy managed to run the ball for just 73.6 yards on average. Interestingly enough, the Colts' success was not dependent upon their passing attack, which averaged 274.6 ypg in wins, and 276.2 ypg in losses. In their previous meeting, the Colts were able to establish the run, rushing for 135 yards in that win. The Chiefs defense, which has been bi-polar against the run this season, allowing over 250 rushing yards twice and less than 100 rushing yards six times, must buckle down in this Wild Card game and shut down Indy's running game.

Taking all three of these keys into account, it is apparent that the Chiefs' success in this week's Wild Card matchup depends upon whether or not they are able to tighten up their defense, pound the ball on the ground, and re-establish the smashmouth game of football that earned them the 9-0 record to start the season. If the KC can re-establish those aspects of their game that made them tough to play against early in the season, while exploiting the weaknesses in Indianapolis' game, they can book their ticket to the Divisional Round. With a win, Kansas City can silence their critics who suggest they don't have what it takes to beat top-caliber teams in the NFL ; with a loss players, coaches, and fans alike will be left to wonder whether those critics are speaking the truth.